Wild Wild Card

Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8343375/wild_wild_card.html?cat=14

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are in hot pursuit of the American League East division crown for yet another year. Coming into play on Monday, August 22, New York has a 0.5 game lead on Boston with less than 40 games remaining in the 2011 season. If this had been 1991, these rivals would be much more anxious about taking the top spot in the AL East because the odd team out would not have made the playoffs. However, with the advent of the wild card in 1995, the regular season has not been as crucial. The Red Sox currently have an almost insurmountable 7.5-game lead in the wild card standings, so both they and the Yankees seem to be in prime position for the postseason.

Although the wild card has taken some of the importance out of the regular season, the playoffs have become even more exciting. Turning back 16 years, the advent of the wild card gave the 1995 Major League Baseball playoffs a big boost. For the first time in history, the MLB postseason involved 4 teams in each league. After the 1994 strike, Bud Selig and MLB executives had expanded both the American and National Leagues from 2 to 3 divisions. Instead of just having 2 postseason rounds, the MLB now had 3 in order to accommodate the reformation of the leagues.

One may state that resting players may benefit the Red Sox for the postseason; others are more in favor of fighting the Yankees to win the AL East. Since 1995, the Red Sox have only won the division twice in 16 years. They sat atop the AL East in 1995 and 2007 and those postseasons ended with opposite results. In 1995, the Cleveland Indians swept the Sox in the American League Division Series; but in 2007, Boston went a combined 11-3 to win the World Series.

The other year that the Red Sox won the World Series was the miracle season of 2004 when they made the postseason as the wild card. Wild cards have won 4 of last 16 World Series. Each postseason includes 8 teams, 2 of which are wild cards. Therefore, mathematically, there is no disadvantage to entering the playoffs as a wild card team. Boston has entered the postseason as the wild card 7 times and their record in those playoffs was a combined 28-23 (.549) compared to 11-6 (.647) as the division winner. The ultimate goal of the Red Sox organization is to win the World Series. Consequently, we may want to look at their success at winning the World Series. Boston has won one championship as the division winner and one as the wild card representative from a possible 2 division winner chances and 7 wild card chances. Additionally, as a division winner in 2011, the Red Sox would have home field advantage throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs. In the end, Terry Francona and the Red Sox should be going for the division win. That will give the team the best chance at achieving their 3rd championship in 8 years.

(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/)

Table of wild card winner finishes compared to respective division winner finishes

	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in ALCS*	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in NLCS*	Face in WS**
2010	Rays 2-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Phillies 5-4 NLCS loss	Braves 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2009	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 4-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2008	Rays 8-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-5 ALCS loss	Rays 4-3	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	Brewers 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2007	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Yankees 1-3 ALDS loss	No	D-Backs 3-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 7-4 WS loss	Rockies 4-0	No
2006	Twins 0-3 ALDS loss	Tigers 8-5 WS loss	No	Padres 1-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2005	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Cardinals 5-4 NLCS loss	Astros 7-7 WS loss	Astros 4-2	No
2004	Yankees 6-5 ALCS loss	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Red Sox 4-3	Cardinals 7-8 WS loss	Astros 6-6 NLCS loss	Cardinals 4-3	No
2003	Yankees 9-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-3	Braves 2-3 NLDS loss	Marlins 11-6 WS win	No	No
2002	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Angels 11-5 WS win	No	D-Backs 0-3 NLDS loss	Giants 10-7 WS loss	No	Angels 4-3
2001	Mariners 4-6 ALCS loss	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 0-3 NLDS loss	Cardinals 2-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2000	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Mariners 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Braves 0-3 NLDS loss	Mets 8-6 WS loss	No	No
1999	Yankees 11-1 WS win	Red Sox 4-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Braves 7-7 WS loss	Mets 5-5 NLCS loss	Braves 4-2	No
1998	Yankees 11-2 WS win	Red Sox 1-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 1-3 NLDS loss	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1997	Orioles 5-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Braves 5-4 NLCS loss	Marlins 11-5 WS win	Marlins 4-2	No
1996	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Orioles 4-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Padres 0-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1995	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No

-Team is followed by playoff record & finish        -Division winner refers to the same division as wild card winner

*Did the playoff teams from the same division face each other in the ALCS or NLCS?  If so, what was the result?

**Did the Wild Card teams from both the AL and NL face each other in the WS?  If so, what was the result?

 

Derby Depression

Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8343315/home_run_derby_depression.html?cat=14

Perennially, the Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is the most exciting event of the summer. While all the other professional sports are not in season, the MLB takes center stage and presents their best players during the 2011 All-Star Weekend. As the All-Star Game itself becomes less and less enjoyable as more players decline their invitations, the Home Run Derby steps up to the plate as the most electrifying MLB spectacle of the mid-summer celebration.

Unfortunately, players seem to hurt their swing by participating in the derby. Every year, some of the participants experience an extreme offensive drop off after the derby. Even a few players endure injuries soon after. For example, after playing 13 games since the All-Star break, Rickie Weeks severely sprained his left ankle and is out for approximately a month. Last year, Hanley Ramirez played 86 of the Marlins' 88 games in the first half of the season, but missed 18 games after the All-Star break due to an elbow injury. And in 2009, Nelson Cruz missed 27 games in the second half of the season after only missing 7 in the first half. Also, in 2009, Carlos Pena played 88 of 89 first half games and then missed 26 of 73 after the derby. Injuries can significantly hurt a team because these power hitters are very hard to find and extremely difficult to replace.

In previous years, the Home Run Derby has statistically hurt players much more than it has helped. In 2008 itself, four of the eight derby participants had significant depletions in their hitting after the derby. Lance Berkman went from having a first half of .347 AVG/.443 OBP/.653 SLG to a second half of .259/.384/.436. 2008 Derby winner Justin Morneau and Dan Uggla also had their struggles. After the All-Star break, they both fell off by more than .050 in batting average, .040 in on-base percentage, .200 in slugging percentage and .13 in home runs per game from their first half statistics. Chase Utley did not fair too well either with regard to home runs. He had 25 HR in 94 games (.27 per game) before the derby; however, afterward, he had only 8 in 65 games (.12 HR per game). What could be the worst incidents of 'Derby Depression' are Bobby Abreu in 2005 and Brandon Inge in 2009. Abreu dropped from 18 HR and .307/.428/.526 in the first half to 6 HR and .260/.376/.411 in the second half after winning the derby with the best single derby HR total (41). Inge was even worse: a first half of 21 HR and .268/.360/.515 to a second half of 6 HR and .186/.260/.281.

These horrendous collapses from Home Run Derby hitters are even apparent in the limited number of games since the All-Star break this year. Before Rickie Weeks went down with his injury in the second half, he was hitting .217/.308/.413 after a first half of .278/.351/.486. In addition, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday and Jose Bautista are all experiencing falls in their HR numbers after the derby. Gonzalez has 1 HR in 15 games since the break (0.07 HR per game) after having 19 in 87 games (0.22 per game). Ortiz has 1 HR in 13 games and neither Matt Holliday nor Jose Bautista has any HR since the derby. Obviously, these players do have two months to turn around their power numbers in the second half of the season, but as of right now, the Home Run Derby is affecting all of them.

Being an exhibition event, the Home Run Derby should be an enjoyable experience for both fans and players. Unfortunately, players are somewhat reluctant to participate because of the consequences to their hitting. The majority of hitters reformulate their swing during the derby in order to hit as many home runs as they can. Therefore, they must readjust to normal pitching after the 3-day All-Star break, which includes the derby. This awkward situation presents the 'Derby Dilemma,' in which a good or even great home run hitter must decide whether to risk his second half power numbers by being a part of the Home Run Derby.

*All statistics are official as of games before Monday, August 1
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/)