Two Baseball Cities: One Collapse, One Comeback

As a Boston Red Sox fan living in the heart of St. Louis, Missouri, I felt both the heartache and jubilation of the 162^nd games of the 2011 Major League Baseball season.  The Red Sox lost the wild card in pre-2004 cursed fashion while the Cardinals massacred the Astros to capture their playoff spot.  On August 25, the Red Sox led the Rays by 9.5 games and the Braves led the Cardinals by 10.5.  The Red Sox did not win consecutive games in September while the Braves ended 2011 on a season-worst five-game losing streak.  The Red Sox had a September record of 7-20, tying their worst September in franchise history, while Braves did not do themselves any favors with a 9-18 final month.  These monumental collapses opened the door for the playoff births of the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals.  The Fenway faithful will feel this big Boston blunder for a while, but Cardinal country is excited for only their second postseason in the last five seasons after reaching it six of the seven previous years.

Both Boston and St. Louis are two of a select few cities to have a MLB team for over a century.  Red Sox and Cardinals fans are among the most knowledgeable in sports.  They live and die for their baseball teams.  Moreover, Wednesday, September 28 will live in infamy for the northeastern city, but will be the culmination of a historical comeback for the Midwesterners.  Fortunately for Boston fans, they can take solace in the two Red Sox World Series wins in 2004 and 2007.  If this collapse had happened before 2004, it would have reaffirmed the curse.  I doubt anyone can consider this the ‘Curse of Andino’ yet no matter how many times people have retweeted Jon Heyman’s (Sports Illustrated) witty phrasing.  New England can now look forward to the Bruins raising their 2011 championship banner on October 6, the Patriots’ chase for their fourth Super Bowl trophy and a possible Celtics season with the Big Three.

Meanwhile in St. Louis, A friend of mine who breathes for Cardinals baseball actually counted them out in mid-August when the St. Louis ballclub was faltering.  He was already pessimistic entering this season once Adam Wainwright was done for the year after he had Tommy John surgery in February of 2011.  In addition, early in the year, Matt Holliday, David Freese, Skip Schumaker and Nick Punto all spent time on the disabled list.  Then in June, Albert Pujols fractured his left forearm and all of St. Louis was worried that the team would be in trouble for years to come.  However, Busch Stadium welcomed back their franchise player on July 6 after only about two weeks away from the lineup.  This was a miraculous recovery for the best MLB player in the last decade.  The Cardinals proceeded to play better as the season continued and they did not endure any more major injuries.  In fact, St. Louis improved their team with two trades that brought in Rafael Furcal, Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel.  The new-look Cardinals meshed well and finished the season in a very strong way.  Now their sights are onto the Phillies, who ironically beat the Braves on the final day of the regular season.

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Wild Wild Card

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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are in hot pursuit of the American League East division crown for yet another year. Coming into play on Monday, August 22, New York has a 0.5 game lead on Boston with less than 40 games remaining in the 2011 season. If this had been 1991, these rivals would be much more anxious about taking the top spot in the AL East because the odd team out would not have made the playoffs. However, with the advent of the wild card in 1995, the regular season has not been as crucial. The Red Sox currently have an almost insurmountable 7.5-game lead in the wild card standings, so both they and the Yankees seem to be in prime position for the postseason.

Although the wild card has taken some of the importance out of the regular season, the playoffs have become even more exciting. Turning back 16 years, the advent of the wild card gave the 1995 Major League Baseball playoffs a big boost. For the first time in history, the MLB postseason involved 4 teams in each league. After the 1994 strike, Bud Selig and MLB executives had expanded both the American and National Leagues from 2 to 3 divisions. Instead of just having 2 postseason rounds, the MLB now had 3 in order to accommodate the reformation of the leagues.

One may state that resting players may benefit the Red Sox for the postseason; others are more in favor of fighting the Yankees to win the AL East. Since 1995, the Red Sox have only won the division twice in 16 years. They sat atop the AL East in 1995 and 2007 and those postseasons ended with opposite results. In 1995, the Cleveland Indians swept the Sox in the American League Division Series; but in 2007, Boston went a combined 11-3 to win the World Series.

The other year that the Red Sox won the World Series was the miracle season of 2004 when they made the postseason as the wild card. Wild cards have won 4 of last 16 World Series. Each postseason includes 8 teams, 2 of which are wild cards. Therefore, mathematically, there is no disadvantage to entering the playoffs as a wild card team. Boston has entered the postseason as the wild card 7 times and their record in those playoffs was a combined 28-23 (.549) compared to 11-6 (.647) as the division winner. The ultimate goal of the Red Sox organization is to win the World Series. Consequently, we may want to look at their success at winning the World Series. Boston has won one championship as the division winner and one as the wild card representative from a possible 2 division winner chances and 7 wild card chances. Additionally, as a division winner in 2011, the Red Sox would have home field advantage throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs. In the end, Terry Francona and the Red Sox should be going for the division win. That will give the team the best chance at achieving their 3rd championship in 8 years.

(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/)

Table of wild card winner finishes compared to respective division winner finishes

	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in ALCS*	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in NLCS*	Face in WS**
2010	Rays 2-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Phillies 5-4 NLCS loss	Braves 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2009	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 4-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2008	Rays 8-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-5 ALCS loss	Rays 4-3	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	Brewers 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2007	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Yankees 1-3 ALDS loss	No	D-Backs 3-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 7-4 WS loss	Rockies 4-0	No
2006	Twins 0-3 ALDS loss	Tigers 8-5 WS loss	No	Padres 1-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2005	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Cardinals 5-4 NLCS loss	Astros 7-7 WS loss	Astros 4-2	No
2004	Yankees 6-5 ALCS loss	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Red Sox 4-3	Cardinals 7-8 WS loss	Astros 6-6 NLCS loss	Cardinals 4-3	No
2003	Yankees 9-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-3	Braves 2-3 NLDS loss	Marlins 11-6 WS win	No	No
2002	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Angels 11-5 WS win	No	D-Backs 0-3 NLDS loss	Giants 10-7 WS loss	No	Angels 4-3
2001	Mariners 4-6 ALCS loss	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 0-3 NLDS loss	Cardinals 2-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2000	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Mariners 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Braves 0-3 NLDS loss	Mets 8-6 WS loss	No	No
1999	Yankees 11-1 WS win	Red Sox 4-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Braves 7-7 WS loss	Mets 5-5 NLCS loss	Braves 4-2	No
1998	Yankees 11-2 WS win	Red Sox 1-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 1-3 NLDS loss	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1997	Orioles 5-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Braves 5-4 NLCS loss	Marlins 11-5 WS win	Marlins 4-2	No
1996	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Orioles 4-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Padres 0-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1995	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No

-Team is followed by playoff record & finish        -Division winner refers to the same division as wild card winner

*Did the playoff teams from the same division face each other in the ALCS or NLCS?  If so, what was the result?

**Did the Wild Card teams from both the AL and NL face each other in the WS?  If so, what was the result?

 

Money, Money, Money

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The last 15 of 16 World Series winners have had payrolls in the top half of all the teams in Major League Baseball. Most casual sports fans could have told you that. However, not too many people can state that in 14 of the previous 16 seasons, at least one bottom half payroll team has made the playoffs. In the business of baseball, the goal of most teams is to advance to the postseason. The MLB has the lowest percentage of teams making the playoffs (27%) out of the four main professional sports; the NFL has 38% of its teams while the NBA and NHL have more than half of their teams making the postseason dance.

Reaching the postseason is a significant measure of a successful ballclub in the major leagues. Well-known Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, who built his team with young players and low salaries, has said, "My job is to get us to the playoffs." He invented the 'Moneyball' approach that many teams have since adopted. After Beane took over as the A's GM in 1998, he brought a last place team in 1997 and 1998 to the playoffs in each of the four seasons from 2000 to 2003. His new pervasive outlook on baseball has benefited many small market teams that cannot spend as much money as the wealthier teams.

There have been 7 seasons out of the last 16 in which at least 3 bottom half payroll teams have made the MLB playoffs. This was best represented by the Florida Marlins shocking victory over the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series. The Yankees with the highest payroll lost to the Marlins, the team with the 25^th highest payroll. That should not happen according to conventional wisdom. The Yankees, with 8 players with higher salaries than Florida's highest salaried player, should have at least forced a Game 7 versus the lowly Marlins. Still, the Marlins, behind the outstanding pitching of Josh Beckett, won the World Series in 6 games at Yankee Stadium with a payroll $100 million less than that of the Yankees.

In the 19 years that the Florida Marlins have existed, they have been good enough and 'lucky' enough to win 2 World Series Championships. Although they had the 7^th highest payroll in 1997 for their first win, from 1998 to 2011 the Marlins have kept their team payroll near the lowest in the league. Florida has been successful because most of their young players and low-risk decisions have panned out. For example, in 2003, the Marlins starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Carl Pavano, Mark Redman, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny garnered less than $7.5 million combined. Most aces make much more than that in a year. Those investments provided very high rewards for the Marlins.

Small market teams are hoping they can hit the jackpot like Florida did. Most of them though have not fared as well. Franchises like the Expos/Nationals, Royals and Orioles have had a lot of trouble succeeding. Since those teams do not have the same resources that high payroll teams do, they have to depend on developing players through their farm systems. Conversely, teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers and Mets can afford to take on many large contracts at a time. Many say that Red Sox General Manger Theo Epstein has done a very good job, but having a large payroll allows him to make mistakes. Since 2003 when Epstein began as the GM, the Red Sox have not had a payroll lower than 6^th in the MLB. Having a substantial budget gives him the opportunity to dish out risky contracts. Since trading Nomar Garciaparra midway through 2004, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop, which has included the horrifying contracts of Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. In 2005, Epstein gave $8 million to Renteria, who made an MLB-high 30 errors and did not even reach hitting 10 home runs at the plate. Then a few years later, Epstein gifted a lot of money on Lugo, who had a .319 on-base percentage and .346 slugging percentage with Boston. The Red Sox organization paid him over $35 million, which included $8.85 million of his $9.25 million contract with the Orioles in 2010. Even with these questionable signings, the Red Sox have continued to make the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 seasons and have won 2 World Series in that time.

In 2011, the Boston Red Sox, with the 3^rd highest payroll, are in a prime position for yet another postseason appearance. In addition, as of today*, the playoffs would also include the Yankees (highest payroll in MLB), Phillies (2^nd highest), Tigers (10^th), Rangers (13^th), Braves (15^th), Brewers (17^th) and Diamondbacks (25^th). This slate of teams includes 2 bottom half payroll teams, which is approximately the average number over the last 16 years. It appears that a fourth of the playoff teams tend to be teams with lower payrolls. Overall, money can lead to positive results in the MLB, but low-payroll teams can be successful in the business as well if they make the right decisions.

*Today: standings before games on Monday, August 15.
**The MLB expanded from 28 to 30 teams in 1998. For data from 1995 to 1997, top half payrolls are 1-14; for 1998 to present, they are 1-15.
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/, http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp)

A Decade-Long Tale of Two Teams

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After the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees concluded their most recent series on early Monday morning, the two teams hit an important date in the season: August 8, 2011. Since the 2001 season, the team that is in first place in the American League Eastern Division beginning the day on August 8 has finished first 8 out of 10 times.

This season, the Red Sox (70 wins) and Yankees (69) have the most combined win total (139) on this date in the past 10 years. The Yankees have previously had 69 wins in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2010 on August 8. However, the Red Sox have not had 70 wins at this date in the previous 10 seasons.

AL East Division Standings - before games on August 8
2001 : NYY 68-46 BOS 64-49
2002 : NYY 71-42 BOS 66-47
2003 : NYY 70-43 BOS 67-48
2004 : NYY 71-39 BOS 60-49
2005* : BOS 64-47 NYY 60-50
2006 : NYY 66-43 BOS 65-46
2007 : BOS 69-45 NYY 63-51
2008 : TB 69-46 BOS 66-50 NYY 63-53
2009 : NYY 68-42 BOS 62-47
2010 : NYY 69-41 TB 67-44 BOS 63-49
2011 : BOS 70-43 NYY 69-44
(Final AL East Champion in bold)

As you can plainly see, it has mostly been a two-team race over the past 10 years in the AL East; and this season is no different. On August 8, both teams have had 60 or more wins in all 10 years. The memorable 2004 season had the Red Sox down to the Yankees by 10.5 games on 8/8/2004, the greatest deficit on 8/8 in the past 10 years.

With 49 games remaining in the 2011 regular season, it should be a tight race to the finish line. The current separation between the Red Sox and Yankees, 1 game, is the closest the two rivals have been in the last 10 years on this date. While history says that the Red Sox will take the division, we should all hang on for a fantastic finish .

*In 2005, the Yankees and Red Sox finished the season with the same record (95-67). The Yankees won the tiebreaker to take the division.
(Sources: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp)

Derby Depression

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Perennially, the Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is the most exciting event of the summer. While all the other professional sports are not in season, the MLB takes center stage and presents their best players during the 2011 All-Star Weekend. As the All-Star Game itself becomes less and less enjoyable as more players decline their invitations, the Home Run Derby steps up to the plate as the most electrifying MLB spectacle of the mid-summer celebration.

Unfortunately, players seem to hurt their swing by participating in the derby. Every year, some of the participants experience an extreme offensive drop off after the derby. Even a few players endure injuries soon after. For example, after playing 13 games since the All-Star break, Rickie Weeks severely sprained his left ankle and is out for approximately a month. Last year, Hanley Ramirez played 86 of the Marlins' 88 games in the first half of the season, but missed 18 games after the All-Star break due to an elbow injury. And in 2009, Nelson Cruz missed 27 games in the second half of the season after only missing 7 in the first half. Also, in 2009, Carlos Pena played 88 of 89 first half games and then missed 26 of 73 after the derby. Injuries can significantly hurt a team because these power hitters are very hard to find and extremely difficult to replace.

In previous years, the Home Run Derby has statistically hurt players much more than it has helped. In 2008 itself, four of the eight derby participants had significant depletions in their hitting after the derby. Lance Berkman went from having a first half of .347 AVG/.443 OBP/.653 SLG to a second half of .259/.384/.436. 2008 Derby winner Justin Morneau and Dan Uggla also had their struggles. After the All-Star break, they both fell off by more than .050 in batting average, .040 in on-base percentage, .200 in slugging percentage and .13 in home runs per game from their first half statistics. Chase Utley did not fair too well either with regard to home runs. He had 25 HR in 94 games (.27 per game) before the derby; however, afterward, he had only 8 in 65 games (.12 HR per game). What could be the worst incidents of 'Derby Depression' are Bobby Abreu in 2005 and Brandon Inge in 2009. Abreu dropped from 18 HR and .307/.428/.526 in the first half to 6 HR and .260/.376/.411 in the second half after winning the derby with the best single derby HR total (41). Inge was even worse: a first half of 21 HR and .268/.360/.515 to a second half of 6 HR and .186/.260/.281.

These horrendous collapses from Home Run Derby hitters are even apparent in the limited number of games since the All-Star break this year. Before Rickie Weeks went down with his injury in the second half, he was hitting .217/.308/.413 after a first half of .278/.351/.486. In addition, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday and Jose Bautista are all experiencing falls in their HR numbers after the derby. Gonzalez has 1 HR in 15 games since the break (0.07 HR per game) after having 19 in 87 games (0.22 per game). Ortiz has 1 HR in 13 games and neither Matt Holliday nor Jose Bautista has any HR since the derby. Obviously, these players do have two months to turn around their power numbers in the second half of the season, but as of right now, the Home Run Derby is affecting all of them.

Being an exhibition event, the Home Run Derby should be an enjoyable experience for both fans and players. Unfortunately, players are somewhat reluctant to participate because of the consequences to their hitting. The majority of hitters reformulate their swing during the derby in order to hit as many home runs as they can. Therefore, they must readjust to normal pitching after the 3-day All-Star break, which includes the derby. This awkward situation presents the 'Derby Dilemma,' in which a good or even great home run hitter must decide whether to risk his second half power numbers by being a part of the Home Run Derby.

*All statistics are official as of games before Monday, August 1
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/)

Major League Lack of Muscle

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On Sunday, July 17, the Red Sox and Rays displayed the lack of hitting that Major League Baseball has been suffering from for the last few years. For some players, the reason could be the lack of performing enhancing substances; others say that the pitchers as a whole have caught up to the batters. No matter the cause, the extra-inning affair served as a microcosm for the monumental fall of MLB's high octane offenses.

Most offenses now have to resort to the National League-type of 'small ball' strategy. This is becoming mandatory because arguably the most exciting part of the game, the home run (0.89 per game in 2011), is unfortunately at its lowest since 1993. Even with 96 outs to work with, neither the Red Sox nor the Rays could muster a home run during Sunday's game. Through all 16 innings, the two ball clubs put up just a total of 8 hits. Thus far in 2011, the MLB has an overall batting average of .252 with 8.58 hits per game, both of which are the lowest averages for the league since 1972.

On the other hand, creating runs with speed and moving runners over is becoming more prevalent throughout the MLB. Stolen bases per game (0.68) are the most since 1999. Stolen bases have been on the rise for almost a decade now. In 2003, the MLB had only 0.53 per game. Therefore, more speedsters will find their ways into MLB lineups since young power hitters are becoming scarcer by the day.

If there's one lesson to take away from Sunday night's game between Boston and Tampa Bay, this could be it: the two teams combined for 2 stolen bases. That is 2 more than the number of home runs and 1 more than the number of total runs scored.

*All statistics are official as of games before Friday, July 22
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml)