Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8343353/money_money_money.html?cat=14
The last 15 of 16 World Series winners have had payrolls in the top half of all the teams in Major League Baseball. Most casual sports fans could have told you that. However, not too many people can state that in 14 of the previous 16 seasons, at least one bottom half payroll team has made the playoffs. In the business of baseball, the goal of most teams is to advance to the postseason. The MLB has the lowest percentage of teams making the playoffs (27%) out of the four main professional sports; the NFL has 38% of its teams while the NBA and NHL have more than half of their teams making the postseason dance.
Reaching the postseason is a significant measure of a successful ballclub in the major leagues. Well-known Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, who built his team with young players and low salaries, has said, "My job is to get us to the playoffs." He invented the 'Moneyball' approach that many teams have since adopted. After Beane took over as the A's GM in 1998, he brought a last place team in 1997 and 1998 to the playoffs in each of the four seasons from 2000 to 2003. His new pervasive outlook on baseball has benefited many small market teams that cannot spend as much money as the wealthier teams.
There have been 7 seasons out of the last 16 in which at least 3 bottom half payroll teams have made the MLB playoffs. This was best represented by the Florida Marlins shocking victory over the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series. The Yankees with the highest payroll lost to the Marlins, the team with the 25th highest payroll. That should not happen according to conventional wisdom. The Yankees, with 8 players with higher salaries than Florida's highest salaried player, should have at least forced a Game 7 versus the lowly Marlins. Still, the Marlins, behind the outstanding pitching of Josh Beckett, won the World Series in 6 games at Yankee Stadium with a payroll $100 million less than that of the Yankees.
In the 19 years that the Florida Marlins have existed, they have been good enough and 'lucky' enough to win 2 World Series Championships. Although they had the 7th highest payroll in 1997 for their first win, from 1998 to 2011 the Marlins have kept their team payroll near the lowest in the league. Florida has been successful because most of their young players and low-risk decisions have panned out. For example, in 2003, the Marlins starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Carl Pavano, Mark Redman, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny garnered less than $7.5 million combined. Most aces make much more than that in a year. Those investments provided very high rewards for the Marlins.
Small market teams are hoping they can hit the jackpot like Florida did. Most of them though have not fared as well. Franchises like the Expos/Nationals, Royals and Orioles have had a lot of trouble succeeding. Since those teams do not have the same resources that high payroll teams do, they have to depend on developing players through their farm systems. Conversely, teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers and Mets can afford to take on many large contracts at a time. Many say that Red Sox General Manger Theo Epstein has done a very good job, but having a large payroll allows him to make mistakes. Since 2003 when Epstein began as the GM, the Red Sox have not had a payroll lower than 6th in the MLB. Having a substantial budget gives him the opportunity to dish out risky contracts. Since trading Nomar Garciaparra midway through 2004, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop, which has included the horrifying contracts of Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. In 2005, Epstein gave $8 million to Renteria, who made an MLB-high 30 errors and did not even reach hitting 10 home runs at the plate. Then a few years later, Epstein gifted a lot of money on Lugo, who had a .319 on-base percentage and .346 slugging percentage with Boston. The Red Sox organization paid him over $35 million, which included $8.85 million of his $9.25 million contract with the Orioles in 2010. Even with these questionable signings, the Red Sox have continued to make the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 seasons and have won 2 World Series in that time.
In 2011, the Boston Red Sox, with the 3rd highest payroll, are in a prime position for yet another postseason appearance. In addition, as of today*, the playoffs would also include the Yankees (highest payroll in MLB), Phillies (2nd highest), Tigers (10th), Rangers (13th), Braves (15th), Brewers (17th) and Diamondbacks (25th). This slate of teams includes 2 bottom half payroll teams, which is approximately the average number over the last 16 years. It appears that a fourth of the playoff teams tend to be teams with lower payrolls. Overall, money can lead to positive results in the MLB, but low-payroll teams can be successful in the business as well if they make the right decisions.
*Today: standings before games on Monday, August 15.
**The MLB expanded from 28 to 30 teams in 1998. For data from 1995 to 1997, top half payrolls are 1-14; for 1998 to present, they are 1-15.
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/, http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp)
Showing posts with label Rangers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rangers. Show all posts
Monday, August 15, 2011
Monday, August 1, 2011
Derby Depression
Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8343315/home_run_derby_depression.html?cat=14
Perennially, the Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is the most exciting event of the summer. While all the other professional sports are not in season, the MLB takes center stage and presents their best players during the 2011 All-Star Weekend. As the All-Star Game itself becomes less and less enjoyable as more players decline their invitations, the Home Run Derby steps up to the plate as the most electrifying MLB spectacle of the mid-summer celebration.
Unfortunately, players seem to hurt their swing by participating in the derby. Every year, some of the participants experience an extreme offensive drop off after the derby. Even a few players endure injuries soon after. For example, after playing 13 games since the All-Star break, Rickie Weeks severely sprained his left ankle and is out for approximately a month. Last year, Hanley Ramirez played 86 of the Marlins' 88 games in the first half of the season, but missed 18 games after the All-Star break due to an elbow injury. And in 2009, Nelson Cruz missed 27 games in the second half of the season after only missing 7 in the first half. Also, in 2009, Carlos Pena played 88 of 89 first half games and then missed 26 of 73 after the derby. Injuries can significantly hurt a team because these power hitters are very hard to find and extremely difficult to replace.
In previous years, the Home Run Derby has statistically hurt players much more than it has helped. In 2008 itself, four of the eight derby participants had significant depletions in their hitting after the derby. Lance Berkman went from having a first half of .347 AVG/.443 OBP/.653 SLG to a second half of .259/.384/.436. 2008 Derby winner Justin Morneau and Dan Uggla also had their struggles. After the All-Star break, they both fell off by more than .050 in batting average, .040 in on-base percentage, .200 in slugging percentage and .13 in home runs per game from their first half statistics. Chase Utley did not fair too well either with regard to home runs. He had 25 HR in 94 games (.27 per game) before the derby; however, afterward, he had only 8 in 65 games (.12 HR per game). What could be the worst incidents of 'Derby Depression' are Bobby Abreu in 2005 and Brandon Inge in 2009. Abreu dropped from 18 HR and .307/.428/.526 in the first half to 6 HR and .260/.376/.411 in the second half after winning the derby with the best single derby HR total (41). Inge was even worse: a first half of 21 HR and .268/.360/.515 to a second half of 6 HR and .186/.260/.281.
These horrendous collapses from Home Run Derby hitters are even apparent in the limited number of games since the All-Star break this year. Before Rickie Weeks went down with his injury in the second half, he was hitting .217/.308/.413 after a first half of .278/.351/.486. In addition, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday and Jose Bautista are all experiencing falls in their HR numbers after the derby. Gonzalez has 1 HR in 15 games since the break (0.07 HR per game) after having 19 in 87 games (0.22 per game). Ortiz has 1 HR in 13 games and neither Matt Holliday nor Jose Bautista has any HR since the derby. Obviously, these players do have two months to turn around their power numbers in the second half of the season, but as of right now, the Home Run Derby is affecting all of them.
Being an exhibition event, the Home Run Derby should be an enjoyable experience for both fans and players. Unfortunately, players are somewhat reluctant to participate because of the consequences to their hitting. The majority of hitters reformulate their swing during the derby in order to hit as many home runs as they can. Therefore, they must readjust to normal pitching after the 3-day All-Star break, which includes the derby. This awkward situation presents the 'Derby Dilemma,' in which a good or even great home run hitter must decide whether to risk his second half power numbers by being a part of the Home Run Derby.
*All statistics are official as of games before Monday, August 1
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/)
Perennially, the Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is the most exciting event of the summer. While all the other professional sports are not in season, the MLB takes center stage and presents their best players during the 2011 All-Star Weekend. As the All-Star Game itself becomes less and less enjoyable as more players decline their invitations, the Home Run Derby steps up to the plate as the most electrifying MLB spectacle of the mid-summer celebration.
Unfortunately, players seem to hurt their swing by participating in the derby. Every year, some of the participants experience an extreme offensive drop off after the derby. Even a few players endure injuries soon after. For example, after playing 13 games since the All-Star break, Rickie Weeks severely sprained his left ankle and is out for approximately a month. Last year, Hanley Ramirez played 86 of the Marlins' 88 games in the first half of the season, but missed 18 games after the All-Star break due to an elbow injury. And in 2009, Nelson Cruz missed 27 games in the second half of the season after only missing 7 in the first half. Also, in 2009, Carlos Pena played 88 of 89 first half games and then missed 26 of 73 after the derby. Injuries can significantly hurt a team because these power hitters are very hard to find and extremely difficult to replace.
In previous years, the Home Run Derby has statistically hurt players much more than it has helped. In 2008 itself, four of the eight derby participants had significant depletions in their hitting after the derby. Lance Berkman went from having a first half of .347 AVG/.443 OBP/.653 SLG to a second half of .259/.384/.436. 2008 Derby winner Justin Morneau and Dan Uggla also had their struggles. After the All-Star break, they both fell off by more than .050 in batting average, .040 in on-base percentage, .200 in slugging percentage and .13 in home runs per game from their first half statistics. Chase Utley did not fair too well either with regard to home runs. He had 25 HR in 94 games (.27 per game) before the derby; however, afterward, he had only 8 in 65 games (.12 HR per game). What could be the worst incidents of 'Derby Depression' are Bobby Abreu in 2005 and Brandon Inge in 2009. Abreu dropped from 18 HR and .307/.428/.526 in the first half to 6 HR and .260/.376/.411 in the second half after winning the derby with the best single derby HR total (41). Inge was even worse: a first half of 21 HR and .268/.360/.515 to a second half of 6 HR and .186/.260/.281.
These horrendous collapses from Home Run Derby hitters are even apparent in the limited number of games since the All-Star break this year. Before Rickie Weeks went down with his injury in the second half, he was hitting .217/.308/.413 after a first half of .278/.351/.486. In addition, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday and Jose Bautista are all experiencing falls in their HR numbers after the derby. Gonzalez has 1 HR in 15 games since the break (0.07 HR per game) after having 19 in 87 games (0.22 per game). Ortiz has 1 HR in 13 games and neither Matt Holliday nor Jose Bautista has any HR since the derby. Obviously, these players do have two months to turn around their power numbers in the second half of the season, but as of right now, the Home Run Derby is affecting all of them.
Being an exhibition event, the Home Run Derby should be an enjoyable experience for both fans and players. Unfortunately, players are somewhat reluctant to participate because of the consequences to their hitting. The majority of hitters reformulate their swing during the derby in order to hit as many home runs as they can. Therefore, they must readjust to normal pitching after the 3-day All-Star break, which includes the derby. This awkward situation presents the 'Derby Dilemma,' in which a good or even great home run hitter must decide whether to risk his second half power numbers by being a part of the Home Run Derby.
*All statistics are official as of games before Monday, August 1
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/)
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