Wild Wild Card

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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are in hot pursuit of the American League East division crown for yet another year. Coming into play on Monday, August 22, New York has a 0.5 game lead on Boston with less than 40 games remaining in the 2011 season. If this had been 1991, these rivals would be much more anxious about taking the top spot in the AL East because the odd team out would not have made the playoffs. However, with the advent of the wild card in 1995, the regular season has not been as crucial. The Red Sox currently have an almost insurmountable 7.5-game lead in the wild card standings, so both they and the Yankees seem to be in prime position for the postseason.

Although the wild card has taken some of the importance out of the regular season, the playoffs have become even more exciting. Turning back 16 years, the advent of the wild card gave the 1995 Major League Baseball playoffs a big boost. For the first time in history, the MLB postseason involved 4 teams in each league. After the 1994 strike, Bud Selig and MLB executives had expanded both the American and National Leagues from 2 to 3 divisions. Instead of just having 2 postseason rounds, the MLB now had 3 in order to accommodate the reformation of the leagues.

One may state that resting players may benefit the Red Sox for the postseason; others are more in favor of fighting the Yankees to win the AL East. Since 1995, the Red Sox have only won the division twice in 16 years. They sat atop the AL East in 1995 and 2007 and those postseasons ended with opposite results. In 1995, the Cleveland Indians swept the Sox in the American League Division Series; but in 2007, Boston went a combined 11-3 to win the World Series.

The other year that the Red Sox won the World Series was the miracle season of 2004 when they made the postseason as the wild card. Wild cards have won 4 of last 16 World Series. Each postseason includes 8 teams, 2 of which are wild cards. Therefore, mathematically, there is no disadvantage to entering the playoffs as a wild card team. Boston has entered the postseason as the wild card 7 times and their record in those playoffs was a combined 28-23 (.549) compared to 11-6 (.647) as the division winner. The ultimate goal of the Red Sox organization is to win the World Series. Consequently, we may want to look at their success at winning the World Series. Boston has won one championship as the division winner and one as the wild card representative from a possible 2 division winner chances and 7 wild card chances. Additionally, as a division winner in 2011, the Red Sox would have home field advantage throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs. In the end, Terry Francona and the Red Sox should be going for the division win. That will give the team the best chance at achieving their 3rd championship in 8 years.

(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/)

Table of wild card winner finishes compared to respective division winner finishes

	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in ALCS*	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in NLCS*	Face in WS**
2010	Rays 2-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Phillies 5-4 NLCS loss	Braves 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2009	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 4-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2008	Rays 8-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-5 ALCS loss	Rays 4-3	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	Brewers 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2007	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Yankees 1-3 ALDS loss	No	D-Backs 3-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 7-4 WS loss	Rockies 4-0	No
2006	Twins 0-3 ALDS loss	Tigers 8-5 WS loss	No	Padres 1-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2005	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Cardinals 5-4 NLCS loss	Astros 7-7 WS loss	Astros 4-2	No
2004	Yankees 6-5 ALCS loss	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Red Sox 4-3	Cardinals 7-8 WS loss	Astros 6-6 NLCS loss	Cardinals 4-3	No
2003	Yankees 9-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-3	Braves 2-3 NLDS loss	Marlins 11-6 WS win	No	No
2002	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Angels 11-5 WS win	No	D-Backs 0-3 NLDS loss	Giants 10-7 WS loss	No	Angels 4-3
2001	Mariners 4-6 ALCS loss	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 0-3 NLDS loss	Cardinals 2-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2000	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Mariners 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Braves 0-3 NLDS loss	Mets 8-6 WS loss	No	No
1999	Yankees 11-1 WS win	Red Sox 4-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Braves 7-7 WS loss	Mets 5-5 NLCS loss	Braves 4-2	No
1998	Yankees 11-2 WS win	Red Sox 1-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 1-3 NLDS loss	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1997	Orioles 5-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Braves 5-4 NLCS loss	Marlins 11-5 WS win	Marlins 4-2	No
1996	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Orioles 4-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Padres 0-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1995	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No

-Team is followed by playoff record & finish        -Division winner refers to the same division as wild card winner

*Did the playoff teams from the same division face each other in the ALCS or NLCS?  If so, what was the result?

**Did the Wild Card teams from both the AL and NL face each other in the WS?  If so, what was the result?

 

Money, Money, Money

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The last 15 of 16 World Series winners have had payrolls in the top half of all the teams in Major League Baseball. Most casual sports fans could have told you that. However, not too many people can state that in 14 of the previous 16 seasons, at least one bottom half payroll team has made the playoffs. In the business of baseball, the goal of most teams is to advance to the postseason. The MLB has the lowest percentage of teams making the playoffs (27%) out of the four main professional sports; the NFL has 38% of its teams while the NBA and NHL have more than half of their teams making the postseason dance.

Reaching the postseason is a significant measure of a successful ballclub in the major leagues. Well-known Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, who built his team with young players and low salaries, has said, "My job is to get us to the playoffs." He invented the 'Moneyball' approach that many teams have since adopted. After Beane took over as the A's GM in 1998, he brought a last place team in 1997 and 1998 to the playoffs in each of the four seasons from 2000 to 2003. His new pervasive outlook on baseball has benefited many small market teams that cannot spend as much money as the wealthier teams.

There have been 7 seasons out of the last 16 in which at least 3 bottom half payroll teams have made the MLB playoffs. This was best represented by the Florida Marlins shocking victory over the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series. The Yankees with the highest payroll lost to the Marlins, the team with the 25^th highest payroll. That should not happen according to conventional wisdom. The Yankees, with 8 players with higher salaries than Florida's highest salaried player, should have at least forced a Game 7 versus the lowly Marlins. Still, the Marlins, behind the outstanding pitching of Josh Beckett, won the World Series in 6 games at Yankee Stadium with a payroll $100 million less than that of the Yankees.

In the 19 years that the Florida Marlins have existed, they have been good enough and 'lucky' enough to win 2 World Series Championships. Although they had the 7^th highest payroll in 1997 for their first win, from 1998 to 2011 the Marlins have kept their team payroll near the lowest in the league. Florida has been successful because most of their young players and low-risk decisions have panned out. For example, in 2003, the Marlins starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Carl Pavano, Mark Redman, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny garnered less than $7.5 million combined. Most aces make much more than that in a year. Those investments provided very high rewards for the Marlins.

Small market teams are hoping they can hit the jackpot like Florida did. Most of them though have not fared as well. Franchises like the Expos/Nationals, Royals and Orioles have had a lot of trouble succeeding. Since those teams do not have the same resources that high payroll teams do, they have to depend on developing players through their farm systems. Conversely, teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers and Mets can afford to take on many large contracts at a time. Many say that Red Sox General Manger Theo Epstein has done a very good job, but having a large payroll allows him to make mistakes. Since 2003 when Epstein began as the GM, the Red Sox have not had a payroll lower than 6^th in the MLB. Having a substantial budget gives him the opportunity to dish out risky contracts. Since trading Nomar Garciaparra midway through 2004, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop, which has included the horrifying contracts of Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. In 2005, Epstein gave $8 million to Renteria, who made an MLB-high 30 errors and did not even reach hitting 10 home runs at the plate. Then a few years later, Epstein gifted a lot of money on Lugo, who had a .319 on-base percentage and .346 slugging percentage with Boston. The Red Sox organization paid him over $35 million, which included $8.85 million of his $9.25 million contract with the Orioles in 2010. Even with these questionable signings, the Red Sox have continued to make the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 seasons and have won 2 World Series in that time.

In 2011, the Boston Red Sox, with the 3^rd highest payroll, are in a prime position for yet another postseason appearance. In addition, as of today*, the playoffs would also include the Yankees (highest payroll in MLB), Phillies (2^nd highest), Tigers (10^th), Rangers (13^th), Braves (15^th), Brewers (17^th) and Diamondbacks (25^th). This slate of teams includes 2 bottom half payroll teams, which is approximately the average number over the last 16 years. It appears that a fourth of the playoff teams tend to be teams with lower payrolls. Overall, money can lead to positive results in the MLB, but low-payroll teams can be successful in the business as well if they make the right decisions.

*Today: standings before games on Monday, August 15.
**The MLB expanded from 28 to 30 teams in 1998. For data from 1995 to 1997, top half payrolls are 1-14; for 1998 to present, they are 1-15.
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/, http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp)