Play It Safe: Week 16

I really liked all of the positive feedback that I received regarding my first edition of a weekly column that I will be calling ‘Play it Safe.’

In Week 16, the championship week for most fantasy football leagues, there will be a good number of divisional matchups. Therefore, as fantasy owners, you will get the chance to look at previous performances against certain teams from the 2011 season.

Here are my safe and risky plays for Week 16…

Safe QBs:

1. Matt Ryan (6^th ranked) @ NO

2. Cam Newton (4^th) vs. TB

3. Drew Brees (T-1^st) vs. Atl

-I cannot believe how well Matt Ryan has played since his bye week in Week 8. Since his bye, he has gone for at least 20 fantasy points 5 out of 7 times compared to zero 20-fantasy point outputs from Week 1 to Week 7. In Week 10 vs. New Orleans, he went for a season-high 351 pass yards. He is facing the Saints again this week. You have to start him in what looks to be a high-scoring affair.

-Cam Newton destroyed the Bucs in Week 13 for 37 fantasy points, his best of his career. Expect a fantastic day for the Panther QB.

-Back to the Falcons/Saints matchup: back in Week 10, Brees also played very well (322 pass yards and 2 TDs). He has been great for your team all year with a TD in every single game. Another must-start. He will not let you down.

Risky QBs:

1. Ben Roethlisberger (13^th) vs. StL
---UPDATE: The Steelers will start Charlie Batch at QB and sit Ben Roethlisberger. Bump up Mendenhall in your rankings. Batch is barely an option in 2-QB leagues.

2. Eli Manning (11^th) @ NYJ

3. Tony Romo (9^th) vs. Phi

-Last week, I told you not to start Dalton against the Rams. If you listened to me, you were rewarded. He went for 5 fantasy points. F-I-V-E. In Week 15, he had the same number of fantasy points as Caleb Hanie and had more fantasy points than only 3 other starting QBs. I am again going to favor the ‘vaunted’ St. Louis defense this week. They have still yet to allow a 300-yard passer since Week 6. Big Ben is arguably the toughest player in the NFL and could start again this week on just one healthy ankle. Playing with the injury last Monday night, he only produced 5 fantasy points. The good news is that this week you will know early enough if he will be active. Even if he does start, do not expect any miracles from your hobbled and very risky QB.

-If you have better options, you may want to consider sitting Eli Manning. He has a chance to go for a few TDs and 300 yards, but I am still weary of his career against Rex Ryan defenses. While Eli has never faced the Jets with Rex as the head coach, Eli has 2 career games against the Ravens, both of which were played while Rex was a defensive coach with Baltimore. Against the Ravens, Eli has by far his worst QB Rating against any opponent (32.6). In addition, in those 2 games, he has a combined 180 pass yards, 1 TD and 3 INT. And remember, Eli is coming off his worst performance in over a year (257 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 INT last week vs. Redskins).

-It is December, so you may have to consider sitting Romo. He has undoubtedly been a great fantasy QB this year and has 4 TDs in each of his last 2 games. However, the Eagles’ pass defense has been great lately, forcing 7 combined QB turnovers in the last 3 weeks. In addition, back in Week 8 at Philadelphia, Romo had his 2^nd worst fantasy-point output of 2011 (203 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).

Safe RBs:

1. Ray Rice (1^st) vs. Cle

2. Maurice Jones-Drew (4^th) @ Ten

3. Ryan Mathews (5^th) @ Det

-Ray Rice was just unlucky last week at San Diego when he was on the wrong side of a blowout. This week, he should be on the right side of one. It was only a few weeks ago in Week 13 in Cleveland when he topped 200 rush yards for the first time in his career.

-In Week 1 vs. the Titans, Jones-Drew went for 97 rush yards and a TD. He should give you at least those numbers this week against a Tennessee defense that has allowed 100+ rush yards in last 5 weeks.

-The Chargers have been playing very well lately and so has Ryan Mathews (per game stats in last 4 games: 113.25 rush yards, 0.75 TDs). This Chargers/Lions game will be a shootout and look for Mathews to excel in both the running and passing game.

Risky RBs:

1. Ahmad Bradshaw (24^th) @ NYJ

2. Cedric Benson (16^th) vs. Ari

3. Beanie Wells (17^th) @ Cin

-Bradshaw has only one 100-yard rushing performance this year. He should only be started in the most desperate of situations because he just cannot be trusted with his 11.7 touches/game in his last 3 games since returning from injury.

-Benson has gone for single-digit fantasy points in 4 of the last 7 weeks. He is getting the workload, so there is a chance for a solid performance, but there is much more potential to see his downside against a good Cardinals defense.

-Since gashing the Rams porous run defense for 228 yards in Week 12, Beanie Wells has gone for a terrible 2.9 yards/carry in the last 3 games. He has salvaged 2 of those performances with a TD, but I do not want to have to depend on Beanie scoring to save my fantasy day.

Safe WRs:

1. Roddy White (3^rd) @ NO

2. Santana Moss (26^th) / Jabar Gaffney (30^th) vs. Min

3. Brandon Marshall (T-5^th) @ NE

-It was very surprisingly to see how poorly Percy Harvin played last week against New Orleans. I guess the Saints focused their defense enough on Harvin to force the ball away from him. However, New Orleans will not be able to stop the Falcons, who have strong targets in Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Matt Ryan has been looking White’s way recently, which has led to 107.4 yards/game and 5 TDs in the last 5 games.

-For the third straight week, the Redskins will face yet another horrendous secondary. This week, it is the Vikings (W14 – Patriots: worst defense vs. fantasy WRs … W15 – NYG: 3^rd worst … W16 – Vikings: 2^nd worst). Here are Washington’s main WRs in the last 2 weeks: Week 14 – Santana Moss: 3 receptions, 81 yards, TD; Jabar Gaffney: 6 rec., 92 yards, TD. Week 15 – Moss: 2 rec., 40 yards, TD; Gaffney: 6 rec., 85 yards. Once again, Moss and Gaffney will be safe plays this week.

-Brandon Marshall is poised to have a career day against the Patriots. In Week 1 vs. New England, he went for 7 rec. and 139 yards. Marshall has also scored in 3 of the last 4 weeks, so I would say he is a good bet as Miami’s lead receiver against the league’s worst pass defense.

Risky WRs:

1. Larry Fitzgerald (T-5^th) @ Cin

2. Victor Cruz (14^th) @ NYJ

3. Mike Wallace (7^th) vs. StL

-If I were a Larry Fitzgerald owner this year, I would be frustrated with his inconsistency. He has had 6 or less fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He has not been very impressive this season and you should not be expecting too much from him in Cincinnati this week.

-Since Mario Manningham returned from his knee injury, Victor Cruz has not scored. In the past 3 weeks, Cruz’s receptions and yards have steadily decreased. Yet, recently he is consistently getting just under 10 targets per game, so he has potential to rack up some yardage. It is unlikely though that Cruz will get in the end zone against a Jets defense that has only given up 1 TD to opposing WRs in the previous 3 weeks.

-While Mike Wallace started the 2011 season with three straight 100-yard games, he has not reached 70 rec. yards since Week 8. In addition, he has only scored 3 TDs in the last 7 games. Roethlisberger’s injury does not help Wallace’s recent struggles either.

(Rankings according to ESPN Composite Rankings; Fantasy Points according to ESPN Standard Scoring)

If there is enough demand for it, I can write another edition of ‘Play It Safe’ next week for Week 17.