Play It Safe: Week 16

I really liked all of the positive feedback that I received regarding my first edition of a weekly column that I will be calling ‘Play it Safe.’

In Week 16, the championship week for most fantasy football leagues, there will be a good number of divisional matchups. Therefore, as fantasy owners, you will get the chance to look at previous performances against certain teams from the 2011 season.

Here are my safe and risky plays for Week 16…

Safe QBs:

1. Matt Ryan (6^th ranked) @ NO

2. Cam Newton (4^th) vs. TB

3. Drew Brees (T-1^st) vs. Atl

-I cannot believe how well Matt Ryan has played since his bye week in Week 8. Since his bye, he has gone for at least 20 fantasy points 5 out of 7 times compared to zero 20-fantasy point outputs from Week 1 to Week 7. In Week 10 vs. New Orleans, he went for a season-high 351 pass yards. He is facing the Saints again this week. You have to start him in what looks to be a high-scoring affair.

-Cam Newton destroyed the Bucs in Week 13 for 37 fantasy points, his best of his career. Expect a fantastic day for the Panther QB.

-Back to the Falcons/Saints matchup: back in Week 10, Brees also played very well (322 pass yards and 2 TDs). He has been great for your team all year with a TD in every single game. Another must-start. He will not let you down.

Risky QBs:

1. Ben Roethlisberger (13^th) vs. StL
---UPDATE: The Steelers will start Charlie Batch at QB and sit Ben Roethlisberger. Bump up Mendenhall in your rankings. Batch is barely an option in 2-QB leagues.

2. Eli Manning (11^th) @ NYJ

3. Tony Romo (9^th) vs. Phi

-Last week, I told you not to start Dalton against the Rams. If you listened to me, you were rewarded. He went for 5 fantasy points. F-I-V-E. In Week 15, he had the same number of fantasy points as Caleb Hanie and had more fantasy points than only 3 other starting QBs. I am again going to favor the ‘vaunted’ St. Louis defense this week. They have still yet to allow a 300-yard passer since Week 6. Big Ben is arguably the toughest player in the NFL and could start again this week on just one healthy ankle. Playing with the injury last Monday night, he only produced 5 fantasy points. The good news is that this week you will know early enough if he will be active. Even if he does start, do not expect any miracles from your hobbled and very risky QB.

-If you have better options, you may want to consider sitting Eli Manning. He has a chance to go for a few TDs and 300 yards, but I am still weary of his career against Rex Ryan defenses. While Eli has never faced the Jets with Rex as the head coach, Eli has 2 career games against the Ravens, both of which were played while Rex was a defensive coach with Baltimore. Against the Ravens, Eli has by far his worst QB Rating against any opponent (32.6). In addition, in those 2 games, he has a combined 180 pass yards, 1 TD and 3 INT. And remember, Eli is coming off his worst performance in over a year (257 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 INT last week vs. Redskins).

-It is December, so you may have to consider sitting Romo. He has undoubtedly been a great fantasy QB this year and has 4 TDs in each of his last 2 games. However, the Eagles’ pass defense has been great lately, forcing 7 combined QB turnovers in the last 3 weeks. In addition, back in Week 8 at Philadelphia, Romo had his 2^nd worst fantasy-point output of 2011 (203 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).

Safe RBs:

1. Ray Rice (1^st) vs. Cle

2. Maurice Jones-Drew (4^th) @ Ten

3. Ryan Mathews (5^th) @ Det

-Ray Rice was just unlucky last week at San Diego when he was on the wrong side of a blowout. This week, he should be on the right side of one. It was only a few weeks ago in Week 13 in Cleveland when he topped 200 rush yards for the first time in his career.

-In Week 1 vs. the Titans, Jones-Drew went for 97 rush yards and a TD. He should give you at least those numbers this week against a Tennessee defense that has allowed 100+ rush yards in last 5 weeks.

-The Chargers have been playing very well lately and so has Ryan Mathews (per game stats in last 4 games: 113.25 rush yards, 0.75 TDs). This Chargers/Lions game will be a shootout and look for Mathews to excel in both the running and passing game.

Risky RBs:

1. Ahmad Bradshaw (24^th) @ NYJ

2. Cedric Benson (16^th) vs. Ari

3. Beanie Wells (17^th) @ Cin

-Bradshaw has only one 100-yard rushing performance this year. He should only be started in the most desperate of situations because he just cannot be trusted with his 11.7 touches/game in his last 3 games since returning from injury.

-Benson has gone for single-digit fantasy points in 4 of the last 7 weeks. He is getting the workload, so there is a chance for a solid performance, but there is much more potential to see his downside against a good Cardinals defense.

-Since gashing the Rams porous run defense for 228 yards in Week 12, Beanie Wells has gone for a terrible 2.9 yards/carry in the last 3 games. He has salvaged 2 of those performances with a TD, but I do not want to have to depend on Beanie scoring to save my fantasy day.

Safe WRs:

1. Roddy White (3^rd) @ NO

2. Santana Moss (26^th) / Jabar Gaffney (30^th) vs. Min

3. Brandon Marshall (T-5^th) @ NE

-It was very surprisingly to see how poorly Percy Harvin played last week against New Orleans. I guess the Saints focused their defense enough on Harvin to force the ball away from him. However, New Orleans will not be able to stop the Falcons, who have strong targets in Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Matt Ryan has been looking White’s way recently, which has led to 107.4 yards/game and 5 TDs in the last 5 games.

-For the third straight week, the Redskins will face yet another horrendous secondary. This week, it is the Vikings (W14 – Patriots: worst defense vs. fantasy WRs … W15 – NYG: 3^rd worst … W16 – Vikings: 2^nd worst). Here are Washington’s main WRs in the last 2 weeks: Week 14 – Santana Moss: 3 receptions, 81 yards, TD; Jabar Gaffney: 6 rec., 92 yards, TD. Week 15 – Moss: 2 rec., 40 yards, TD; Gaffney: 6 rec., 85 yards. Once again, Moss and Gaffney will be safe plays this week.

-Brandon Marshall is poised to have a career day against the Patriots. In Week 1 vs. New England, he went for 7 rec. and 139 yards. Marshall has also scored in 3 of the last 4 weeks, so I would say he is a good bet as Miami’s lead receiver against the league’s worst pass defense.

Risky WRs:

1. Larry Fitzgerald (T-5^th) @ Cin

2. Victor Cruz (14^th) @ NYJ

3. Mike Wallace (7^th) vs. StL

-If I were a Larry Fitzgerald owner this year, I would be frustrated with his inconsistency. He has had 6 or less fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He has not been very impressive this season and you should not be expecting too much from him in Cincinnati this week.

-Since Mario Manningham returned from his knee injury, Victor Cruz has not scored. In the past 3 weeks, Cruz’s receptions and yards have steadily decreased. Yet, recently he is consistently getting just under 10 targets per game, so he has potential to rack up some yardage. It is unlikely though that Cruz will get in the end zone against a Jets defense that has only given up 1 TD to opposing WRs in the previous 3 weeks.

-While Mike Wallace started the 2011 season with three straight 100-yard games, he has not reached 70 rec. yards since Week 8. In addition, he has only scored 3 TDs in the last 7 games. Roethlisberger’s injury does not help Wallace’s recent struggles either.

(Rankings according to ESPN Composite Rankings; Fantasy Points according to ESPN Standard Scoring)

If there is enough demand for it, I can write another edition of ‘Play It Safe’ next week for Week 17.

Fantasy Football: Safe & Risky Plays for Week 15

For as long as I have been playing fantasy football, I have studied rankings and projections in attempt to set my lineup each week. However, neither the rankings nor the projections reflect the safe or risky plays of the week. Every week, experts should provide their safer and riskier plays respective to the player’s individual ranking. Consistency is extremely important in fantasy, especially fantasy football when each player only plays one game per week. It would be great to see the top 3 safest and riskiest players in the top 20 QBs, top 40 RBs and top 40 WRs.

Here are mine for Week 15…

Safest QBs: (1) Drew Brees (2^nd ranked) @ Min; (2) Tom Brady (3^rd) @ Den; (3) Tim Tebow (8^th) vs. NE

-In his last 4 games, without committing a turnover, Brees has gone for at least 20 fantasy points, 300 pass yards and 2 TDs. Not much else needs to be said.

-Patriots @ Broncos looks to be a high-scoring game. Brady and Tebow should be battling back and forth all game.

Riskier QBs: (1) Andy Dalton (14^th) @ StL; (2) Michael Vick (11^th) vs. NYJ; (3) Philip Rivers (10^th) vs. Bal

-Surprisingly, the Rams have not allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 6. In addition, the St. Louis defense has only given up 2 TDs to a QB once since Week 8. In their last 3 home games, the Rams have given up 1, 6 and 10 fantasy points to opposing QBs, respectively. Dalton has also been getting in his own way the past few weeks. His last 4 games: 4 TDs and 6 turnovers. In Dalton's last 2 games, he has not even accumulated 200 pass yards in either.

Safest RBs: (1) Arian Foster (1^st) vs. Car; (2) Felix Jones (T-9^th) @ TB; (3) Chris Johnson (6^th) @ Ind

-Cowboys FB Tony Fiammetta, who played last week vs. the Giants after missing the previous 3 games with a mystery illness, has given Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray some great help this year. He is the difference in generating a great running game in Dallas. With Murray out for the season, Jones will take over and go for over 100 total yards against the Bucs, the worst defense against fantasy football RBs.

-In 11 of the Colts’ 13 games this season, they have given up 90+ rushing yards to opposing RBs. In 10 of their 13 games, they have given up at least 1 TD to opposing RBs. While CJ2K faltered last week, he’ll get back to over 100 total yards this week.

Riskier RBs: (1) Rashard Mendenhall (23^rd) @ SF; (2) Peyton Hillis (35^th) @ Ari; (3) Marshawn Lynch (8^th) @ Chi

-Mendenhall has struggled recently (no game with 100 rush yards since Week 6) and he is going up against the 49ers, the best defense against fantasy RBs this season. San Francisco remains the only team to not allow a rushing TD all season.

-Just avoid all Cleveland RBs entirely.

-While you may feel like you must start Lynch this week, I would look for better options if you have them. The Bears are the 5^th best defense against fantasy RBs. In his only regular season game vs. the Bears in his career, Marshawn had 17 rushes for only 44 yards.

Safest WRs: (1) Percy Harvin (11^th) vs. NO; (2) Santana Moss (23^rd) @ NYG; (3) Jabar Gaffney (36^th) @ NYG

-Harvin has had at least 6 receptions, 4 rushes and 1 TD in the last 4 games. He is the focal point of the Vikings offense and a great option for this week.

-The Redskins will face a terrible another terrible secondary this week in the Giants (Patriots: worst defense vs. fantasy WRs; NYG: 2^nd worst). I can’t believe I’m saying this, but get those Redskins in your lineup.

Riskier WRs: (1) Pierre Garcon (33^rd) vs. Ten; (2) DeSean Jackson (25^th) vs. NYJ; (3) Vincent Jackson (14^th) vs. Bal

-9 of 13 weeks with 6 fantasy points or lower for Garcon. WRs are the least consistent position, and Garcon is the epitome of this phenomenon.

-8 of 13 weeks with 6 fantasy points or lower for V-Jax. Vincent could be in for a long day against the great Ravens defense.

(Rankings according to ESPN Composite Rankings; Fantasy Points according to ESPN Standard Scoring)

If you enjoy this installment of the Weekend Dose, I can provide the safe and risky plays for Week 16 and 17, too.

Fantasy Football: WR/TE Instead of TE

For the last 3 seasons, my fantasy football league has not included an exclusive Tight End spot. In my 14-team league this season, we have 3 ‘WR/TE’ positions to fill. However, both ESPN and Yahoo standard leagues still have a ‘TE’ position. In most leagues, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends are the only 2 positions that get points from the exact same categories: receptions, reception yards and reception touchdowns. In addition, there are only a few dominating TEs (Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham) plus a few more “good” TEs. These next 3 to 6 TEs can give you solid production in about half of the weeks of the season. Afterwards, the rest are terrible, having maybe 1 or 2 good weeks in the entire year. The position of TE is so dreadful without any depth that it should be included with the WRs. If you are going to be the commissioner of a fantasy football league next year, you should consider eliminating your TE and change to WR/TE.

Stay away from Browns RBs in Week 12

With Montario Hardesty (calf) participating in practice on Friday, Cleveland Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmur said that no Browns RB is going to receive a full workload in Week 12 vs. Cincinnati. Although Chris Ogbonnaya seems to have come into his own over the last 2 weeks (5.1 yards per rush on 40 carries), he cannot be relied upon even as a RB2 this week. In addition, with it being Hardesty’s first game since late October, he is barely a flex option. And Peyton Hillis (hamstring) is even a game-time decision. While I don’t expect Hillis to play, this still adds more evidence that neither Ogbonnaya nor Hardesty are good fantasy options this week against a Bengals defense that gives up an NFL-least 3.4 yards per rush.

QB Controversy for Your Fantasy Team in Week 11

There have already been 8 permanent changes at QB in the NFL this season. That marks one-fourth of the NFL. All of the following Week 1 starting QBs have lost their starting position one way or another coming into Week 11: Chad Henne, Matt Schaub, Kerry Collins, Luke McCown, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb. In addition, there are special circumstances with Michael Vick, Kevin Kolb and Rex Grossman.

In most Fantasy Football leagues, owners can only start 1 QB. Most likely, Matt Schaub (foot) and Michael Vick (ribs) are hurting owners in almost every league. With the Lisfranc sprain to Schaub’s right foot, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Monday that Schaub would be done for the season. Not so fast. Texans Head Coach Gary Kubiak says that nothing is for sure yet. I think you have to hold onto Schaub until it is confirmed that he is done for the season. If Schaub returns with a few weeks left in the season, you do not want to be sorry you dropped a top 10 QB. Schaub owners should make space on their bench for both Matt Leinart and Schaub. After the Texans have their bye in Week 11, Houston faces the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In Week 8 vs. Jacksonville, Schaub was the 6^th best fantasy QB in ESPN standard leagues. If you have limited options, it is possible Matt Leinart could be a sneaky start. There’s a chance he could make it into the top 10 of QBs in Week 12. He has a lot of talented players around him, including two of the best twenty RBs in the league in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Leinart could find himself with 100+ yards and a TD on dump off passes alone. Not only can he throw short, but he can also go long with Andre Johnson, who looks to be back after the bye. Give the high-risk, high-reward Heisman winner a shot in Week 12.

We’re still in Week 11 and some owners are struggling at their QB position with Vick possibly out Sunday. Several sources are reporting that he can barely walk. Expect Vince Young to get the nod at the Giants. Surprisingly, Young is 2-0 in his career vs. the Giants with the following stats: 66.7% completion percentage, 367 pass yards, 3 pass TD, 107.2 QB rating, 13 rushes, 75 rush yards, 1 rush TD. Last year in New York, he played well, but had only 16 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts compared to 32 carries for Chris Johnson. I don’t see Young as a detriment to the Philly offense, but look for LeSean McCoy to be the main guy. As far as starting him for your team, Young is a solid choice. He won’t win your week for you, but he won’t lose your week. I think 12-20 for 200 yards and a TD sounds good to me. With Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger on bye, you don’t have too many great replacements out there. I’m liking Young (owned in 2.1% of ESPN Fantasy Football leagues), but here are a few other QBs you may want to consider for your Week 11 matchup: Carson Palmer (53.0%) and Alex Smith (29.5%). As long as you are not penalized too much for turnovers, Palmer is a very good option against a Vikings defense that gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Alex Smith and the 49ers look to carve up the Cardinals and he should be a key part of that blowout.

Beanie Wells and Saints RBs in Week 10

Arizona Cardinals starting RB Beanie Wells continues to be hampered by a knee injury, but is still the 15^th most started back in Week 10. He is part of a group of RBs that are started in more leagues than they should be. Beanie is much too overrated to be started in almost 72% of leagues. While he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in his first 3 games of the season, he has not been the same since. He has only topped 100 total yards twice this season, the last being in Week 4. In addition, Beanie has only scored once since Week 5. Facing the Eagles this week, the Cardinals should be down most of the game and there won’t be too many carries to be had. Without any bye weeks in Week 10 as well as John Skelton starting again at QB, I can’t see Beanie finishing in the top 25 of RBs this week.

While Beanie Wells is the primary back in Arizona, there are many teams using RB committees. The New Orleans Saints is one of those teams, and they utilize it successfully with Darren Sproles (14^th most started: 74.0% started), Pierre Thomas (29^th: 38.4%), Mark Ingram (40^th: 19.5%) and Chris Ivory (75^th: 0.4%). Having four competent backs works well in the NFL, but not in Fantasy Football. For deep league owners struggling at RB, Ivory is a nice sleeper because of the confidence the Saints coaching staff has in him. In only his 2^nd game this season (last week vs. Tampa), he led all Saints RBs in touches (15). Unfortunately, Mark Ingram (heel) could be active this week for the first time since Week 7. That would bump Ivory, who is battling his own hamstring troubles, back down to the 4^th RB on the roster. If so, I would avoid most of the Saints RB situation. With Sproles’ great presence in the passing game each week (at least 5 receptions in each game in 2011), he’s always a good start. However, I’m not confident starting Thomas, Ingram or Ivory. I would avoid these guys because they all take touches away from each other.

(All starting percentages based on ESPN Fantasy Football Leagues. Also, all fantasy points based on ESPN standard scoring.)

Chargers RB Situation for Week 9

San Diego Chargers starting RB Ryan Mathews (groin) has missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Third-string RB Curtis Brinkley (concussion) has done the same. Meanwhile, Mike Tolbert (hamstring) has practiced both Wednesday and Thursday after being inactive this past Monday night. With FB Jacob Hester as the only other remaining healthy back in San Diego, look for Tolbert to get 25-30 touches vs. the Green Bay Packers defense that gives up the 5th most yards/game and 2nd most pass yards/game in the NFL. The Packers could get up early and force the Chargers to pass more, but that won’t be a problem for Tolbert. As long as Mathews and Brinkley are inactive this Sunday, I think Tolbert is a must-start because he should get you 150 yards from scrimmage and at least a TD.

Two Baseball Cities: One Collapse, One Comeback

As a Boston Red Sox fan living in the heart of St. Louis, Missouri, I felt both the heartache and jubilation of the 162^nd games of the 2011 Major League Baseball season.  The Red Sox lost the wild card in pre-2004 cursed fashion while the Cardinals massacred the Astros to capture their playoff spot.  On August 25, the Red Sox led the Rays by 9.5 games and the Braves led the Cardinals by 10.5.  The Red Sox did not win consecutive games in September while the Braves ended 2011 on a season-worst five-game losing streak.  The Red Sox had a September record of 7-20, tying their worst September in franchise history, while Braves did not do themselves any favors with a 9-18 final month.  These monumental collapses opened the door for the playoff births of the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals.  The Fenway faithful will feel this big Boston blunder for a while, but Cardinal country is excited for only their second postseason in the last five seasons after reaching it six of the seven previous years.

Both Boston and St. Louis are two of a select few cities to have a MLB team for over a century.  Red Sox and Cardinals fans are among the most knowledgeable in sports.  They live and die for their baseball teams.  Moreover, Wednesday, September 28 will live in infamy for the northeastern city, but will be the culmination of a historical comeback for the Midwesterners.  Fortunately for Boston fans, they can take solace in the two Red Sox World Series wins in 2004 and 2007.  If this collapse had happened before 2004, it would have reaffirmed the curse.  I doubt anyone can consider this the ‘Curse of Andino’ yet no matter how many times people have retweeted Jon Heyman’s (Sports Illustrated) witty phrasing.  New England can now look forward to the Bruins raising their 2011 championship banner on October 6, the Patriots’ chase for their fourth Super Bowl trophy and a possible Celtics season with the Big Three.

Meanwhile in St. Louis, A friend of mine who breathes for Cardinals baseball actually counted them out in mid-August when the St. Louis ballclub was faltering.  He was already pessimistic entering this season once Adam Wainwright was done for the year after he had Tommy John surgery in February of 2011.  In addition, early in the year, Matt Holliday, David Freese, Skip Schumaker and Nick Punto all spent time on the disabled list.  Then in June, Albert Pujols fractured his left forearm and all of St. Louis was worried that the team would be in trouble for years to come.  However, Busch Stadium welcomed back their franchise player on July 6 after only about two weeks away from the lineup.  This was a miraculous recovery for the best MLB player in the last decade.  The Cardinals proceeded to play better as the season continued and they did not endure any more major injuries.  In fact, St. Louis improved their team with two trades that brought in Rafael Furcal, Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel.  The new-look Cardinals meshed well and finished the season in a very strong way.  Now their sights are onto the Phillies, who ironically beat the Braves on the final day of the regular season.

Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8710473/two_baseball_cities_one_collapse_one.html?cat=14

Your Fantasy Football QB: The Super Six

Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning are your safe bets for 2011 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks, in that order.  Quarterback is the most reliable position in Fantasy Football because of the National Football League rules that protect them.  Since QBs have much longer careers than running backs, they have longer track records to analyze prior performance.

Some may say that Tony Romo is a very reliable QB, but there are holes in his repertoire.  He may end up as one of the top QBs for his potential high totals in yards per pass attempt.  Not including his shortened 2010 season, he has consistently ranked in the top six of QBs in yards per pass attempt.  However, in his last 3 seasons, he has played 16 games only once.  He has a great receiving corps, but Romo’s risk of injury in addition to his very difficult schedule (Dallas faces the AFC East) are enough to push him out of the first tier.

The best values out of the top six QBs are Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers.  Rodgers, Vick and Brees are great picks, but you would have to pick them higher in snake drafts or buy them for more in auctions.  The New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers have such high-octane offenses that both of these QBs will be throwing and scoring a lot.  In 2010, these teams led the league in scoring.  Excluding Brady’s 2008 lost season, he has been in the top eight of passing yards for the last 5 years.  For the last 3 years, Rivers has led the NFL in yards per pass attempt.

Arguably, Peyton Manning’s neck is the major story entering the 2011 NFL season.  The pain seems to be subsiding; therefore, this gives him a decent chance at leading a fantasy team.  For the last 2 years, he has been in the top two in pass attempts.  Moreover, in the last 12 of 13 years, he has been top ten.  Those who are in 1-QB leagues who select Peyton should ensure they get his backup Kerry Collins and a second to third tier QB.  2-QB league managers obviously need to grab Collins in later rounds in addition to at least a second tier QB and a third tier QB.

Wild Wild Card

Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8343375/wild_wild_card.html?cat=14

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are in hot pursuit of the American League East division crown for yet another year. Coming into play on Monday, August 22, New York has a 0.5 game lead on Boston with less than 40 games remaining in the 2011 season. If this had been 1991, these rivals would be much more anxious about taking the top spot in the AL East because the odd team out would not have made the playoffs. However, with the advent of the wild card in 1995, the regular season has not been as crucial. The Red Sox currently have an almost insurmountable 7.5-game lead in the wild card standings, so both they and the Yankees seem to be in prime position for the postseason.

Although the wild card has taken some of the importance out of the regular season, the playoffs have become even more exciting. Turning back 16 years, the advent of the wild card gave the 1995 Major League Baseball playoffs a big boost. For the first time in history, the MLB postseason involved 4 teams in each league. After the 1994 strike, Bud Selig and MLB executives had expanded both the American and National Leagues from 2 to 3 divisions. Instead of just having 2 postseason rounds, the MLB now had 3 in order to accommodate the reformation of the leagues.

One may state that resting players may benefit the Red Sox for the postseason; others are more in favor of fighting the Yankees to win the AL East. Since 1995, the Red Sox have only won the division twice in 16 years. They sat atop the AL East in 1995 and 2007 and those postseasons ended with opposite results. In 1995, the Cleveland Indians swept the Sox in the American League Division Series; but in 2007, Boston went a combined 11-3 to win the World Series.

The other year that the Red Sox won the World Series was the miracle season of 2004 when they made the postseason as the wild card. Wild cards have won 4 of last 16 World Series. Each postseason includes 8 teams, 2 of which are wild cards. Therefore, mathematically, there is no disadvantage to entering the playoffs as a wild card team. Boston has entered the postseason as the wild card 7 times and their record in those playoffs was a combined 28-23 (.549) compared to 11-6 (.647) as the division winner. The ultimate goal of the Red Sox organization is to win the World Series. Consequently, we may want to look at their success at winning the World Series. Boston has won one championship as the division winner and one as the wild card representative from a possible 2 division winner chances and 7 wild card chances. Additionally, as a division winner in 2011, the Red Sox would have home field advantage throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs. In the end, Terry Francona and the Red Sox should be going for the division win. That will give the team the best chance at achieving their 3rd championship in 8 years.

(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/)

Table of wild card winner finishes compared to respective division winner finishes

	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in ALCS*	Division Winner	Wild Card Winner	Face in NLCS*	Face in WS**
2010	Rays 2-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Phillies 5-4 NLCS loss	Braves 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2009	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 4-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2008	Rays 8-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-5 ALCS loss	Rays 4-3	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	Brewers 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2007	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Yankees 1-3 ALDS loss	No	D-Backs 3-4 NLCS loss	Rockies 7-4 WS loss	Rockies 4-0	No
2006	Twins 0-3 ALDS loss	Tigers 8-5 WS loss	No	Padres 1-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2005	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	No	Cardinals 5-4 NLCS loss	Astros 7-7 WS loss	Astros 4-2	No
2004	Yankees 6-5 ALCS loss	Red Sox 11-3 WS win	Red Sox 4-3	Cardinals 7-8 WS loss	Astros 6-6 NLCS loss	Cardinals 4-3	No
2003	Yankees 9-8 WS loss	Red Sox 6-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-3	Braves 2-3 NLDS loss	Marlins 11-6 WS win	No	No
2002	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Angels 11-5 WS win	No	D-Backs 0-3 NLDS loss	Giants 10-7 WS loss	No	Angels 4-3
2001	Mariners 4-6 ALCS loss	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 0-3 NLDS loss	Cardinals 2-3 NLDS loss	No	No
2000	Athletics 2-3 ALDS loss	Mariners 5-4 ALCS loss	No	Braves 0-3 NLDS loss	Mets 8-6 WS loss	No	No
1999	Yankees 11-1 WS win	Red Sox 4-6 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Braves 7-7 WS loss	Mets 5-5 NLCS loss	Braves 4-2	No
1998	Yankees 11-2 WS win	Red Sox 1-3 ALDS loss	No	Astros 1-3 NLDS loss	Cubs 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1997	Orioles 5-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Braves 5-4 NLCS loss	Marlins 11-5 WS win	Marlins 4-2	No
1996	Yankees 11-4 WS win	Orioles 4-5 ALCS loss	Yankees 4-1	Padres 0-3 NLDS loss	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	No	No
1995	Red Sox 0-3 ALDS loss	Yankees 2-3 ALDS loss	No	Dodgers 0-3 NLDS loss	Rockies 1-3 NLDS loss	No	No

-Team is followed by playoff record & finish        -Division winner refers to the same division as wild card winner

*Did the playoff teams from the same division face each other in the ALCS or NLCS?  If so, what was the result?

**Did the Wild Card teams from both the AL and NL face each other in the WS?  If so, what was the result?

 

Money, Money, Money

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The last 15 of 16 World Series winners have had payrolls in the top half of all the teams in Major League Baseball. Most casual sports fans could have told you that. However, not too many people can state that in 14 of the previous 16 seasons, at least one bottom half payroll team has made the playoffs. In the business of baseball, the goal of most teams is to advance to the postseason. The MLB has the lowest percentage of teams making the playoffs (27%) out of the four main professional sports; the NFL has 38% of its teams while the NBA and NHL have more than half of their teams making the postseason dance.

Reaching the postseason is a significant measure of a successful ballclub in the major leagues. Well-known Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, who built his team with young players and low salaries, has said, "My job is to get us to the playoffs." He invented the 'Moneyball' approach that many teams have since adopted. After Beane took over as the A's GM in 1998, he brought a last place team in 1997 and 1998 to the playoffs in each of the four seasons from 2000 to 2003. His new pervasive outlook on baseball has benefited many small market teams that cannot spend as much money as the wealthier teams.

There have been 7 seasons out of the last 16 in which at least 3 bottom half payroll teams have made the MLB playoffs. This was best represented by the Florida Marlins shocking victory over the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series. The Yankees with the highest payroll lost to the Marlins, the team with the 25^th highest payroll. That should not happen according to conventional wisdom. The Yankees, with 8 players with higher salaries than Florida's highest salaried player, should have at least forced a Game 7 versus the lowly Marlins. Still, the Marlins, behind the outstanding pitching of Josh Beckett, won the World Series in 6 games at Yankee Stadium with a payroll $100 million less than that of the Yankees.

In the 19 years that the Florida Marlins have existed, they have been good enough and 'lucky' enough to win 2 World Series Championships. Although they had the 7^th highest payroll in 1997 for their first win, from 1998 to 2011 the Marlins have kept their team payroll near the lowest in the league. Florida has been successful because most of their young players and low-risk decisions have panned out. For example, in 2003, the Marlins starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Carl Pavano, Mark Redman, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny garnered less than $7.5 million combined. Most aces make much more than that in a year. Those investments provided very high rewards for the Marlins.

Small market teams are hoping they can hit the jackpot like Florida did. Most of them though have not fared as well. Franchises like the Expos/Nationals, Royals and Orioles have had a lot of trouble succeeding. Since those teams do not have the same resources that high payroll teams do, they have to depend on developing players through their farm systems. Conversely, teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers and Mets can afford to take on many large contracts at a time. Many say that Red Sox General Manger Theo Epstein has done a very good job, but having a large payroll allows him to make mistakes. Since 2003 when Epstein began as the GM, the Red Sox have not had a payroll lower than 6^th in the MLB. Having a substantial budget gives him the opportunity to dish out risky contracts. Since trading Nomar Garciaparra midway through 2004, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at shortstop, which has included the horrifying contracts of Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. In 2005, Epstein gave $8 million to Renteria, who made an MLB-high 30 errors and did not even reach hitting 10 home runs at the plate. Then a few years later, Epstein gifted a lot of money on Lugo, who had a .319 on-base percentage and .346 slugging percentage with Boston. The Red Sox organization paid him over $35 million, which included $8.85 million of his $9.25 million contract with the Orioles in 2010. Even with these questionable signings, the Red Sox have continued to make the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 seasons and have won 2 World Series in that time.

In 2011, the Boston Red Sox, with the 3^rd highest payroll, are in a prime position for yet another postseason appearance. In addition, as of today*, the playoffs would also include the Yankees (highest payroll in MLB), Phillies (2^nd highest), Tigers (10^th), Rangers (13^th), Braves (15^th), Brewers (17^th) and Diamondbacks (25^th). This slate of teams includes 2 bottom half payroll teams, which is approximately the average number over the last 16 years. It appears that a fourth of the playoff teams tend to be teams with lower payrolls. Overall, money can lead to positive results in the MLB, but low-payroll teams can be successful in the business as well if they make the right decisions.

*Today: standings before games on Monday, August 15.
**The MLB expanded from 28 to 30 teams in 1998. For data from 1995 to 1997, top half payrolls are 1-14; for 1998 to present, they are 1-15.
(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/, http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp)