For as long as I have been playing fantasy football, I have studied rankings and projections in attempt to set my lineup each week. However, neither the rankings nor the projections reflect the safe or risky plays of the week. Every week, experts should provide their safer and riskier plays respective to the player’s individual ranking. Consistency is extremely important in fantasy, especially fantasy football when each player only plays one game per week. It would be great to see the top 3 safest and riskiest players in the top 20 QBs, top 40 RBs and top 40 WRs.
Here are mine for Week 15…
Safest QBs: (1) Drew Brees (2nd ranked) @ Min; (2) Tom Brady (3rd) @ Den; (3) Tim Tebow (8th) vs. NE
-In his last 4 games, without committing a turnover, Brees has gone for at least 20 fantasy points, 300 pass yards and 2 TDs. Not much else needs to be said.
-Patriots @ Broncos looks to be a high-scoring game. Brady and Tebow should be battling back and forth all game.
Riskier QBs: (1) Andy Dalton (14th) @ StL; (2) Michael Vick (11th) vs. NYJ; (3) Philip Rivers (10th) vs. Bal
-Surprisingly, the Rams have not allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 6. In addition, the St. Louis defense has only given up 2 TDs to a QB once since Week 8. In their last 3 home games, the Rams have given up 1, 6 and 10 fantasy points to opposing QBs, respectively. Dalton has also been getting in his own way the past few weeks. His last 4 games: 4 TDs and 6 turnovers. In Dalton's last 2 games, he has not even accumulated 200 pass yards in either.
Safest RBs: (1) Arian Foster (1st) vs. Car; (2) Felix Jones (T-9th) @ TB; (3) Chris Johnson (6th) @ Ind
-Cowboys FB Tony Fiammetta, who played last week vs. the Giants after missing the previous 3 games with a mystery illness, has given Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray some great help this year. He is the difference in generating a great running game in Dallas. With Murray out for the season, Jones will take over and go for over 100 total yards against the Bucs, the worst defense against fantasy football RBs.
-In 11 of the Colts’ 13 games this season, they have given up 90+ rushing yards to opposing RBs. In 10 of their 13 games, they have given up at least 1 TD to opposing RBs. While CJ2K faltered last week, he’ll get back to over 100 total yards this week.
Riskier RBs: (1) Rashard Mendenhall (23rd) @ SF; (2) Peyton Hillis (35th) @ Ari; (3) Marshawn Lynch (8th) @ Chi
-Mendenhall has struggled recently (no game with 100 rush yards since Week 6) and he is going up against the 49ers, the best defense against fantasy RBs this season. San Francisco remains the only team to not allow a rushing TD all season.
-Just avoid all Cleveland RBs entirely.
-While you may feel like you must start Lynch this week, I would look for better options if you have them. The Bears are the 5th best defense against fantasy RBs. In his only regular season game vs. the Bears in his career, Marshawn had 17 rushes for only 44 yards.
Safest WRs: (1) Percy Harvin (11th) vs. NO; (2) Santana Moss (23rd) @ NYG; (3) Jabar Gaffney (36th) @ NYG
-Harvin has had at least 6 receptions, 4 rushes and 1 TD in the last 4 games. He is the focal point of the Vikings offense and a great option for this week.
-The Redskins will face a terrible another terrible secondary this week in the Giants (Patriots: worst defense vs. fantasy WRs; NYG: 2nd worst). I can’t believe I’m saying this, but get those Redskins in your lineup.
Riskier WRs: (1) Pierre Garcon (33rd) vs. Ten; (2) DeSean Jackson (25th) vs. NYJ; (3) Vincent Jackson (14th) vs. Bal
-9 of 13 weeks with 6 fantasy points or lower for Garcon. WRs are the least consistent position, and Garcon is the epitome of this phenomenon.
-8 of 13 weeks with 6 fantasy points or lower for V-Jax. Vincent could be in for a long day against the great Ravens defense.
(Rankings according to ESPN Composite Rankings; Fantasy Points according to ESPN Standard Scoring)
If you enjoy this installment of the Weekend Dose, I can provide the safe and risky plays for Week 16 and 17, too.
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