Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning are your safe bets for 2011 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks, in that order. Quarterback is the most reliable position in Fantasy Football because of the National Football League rules that protect them. Since QBs have much longer careers than running backs, they have longer track records to analyze prior performance.
Some may say that Tony Romo is a very reliable QB, but there are holes in his repertoire. He may end up as one of the top QBs for his potential high totals in yards per pass attempt. Not including his shortened 2010 season, he has consistently ranked in the top six of QBs in yards per pass attempt. However, in his last 3 seasons, he has played 16 games only once. He has a great receiving corps, but Romo’s risk of injury in addition to his very difficult schedule (Dallas faces the AFC East) are enough to push him out of the first tier.
The best values out of the top six QBs are Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers. Rodgers, Vick and Brees are great picks, but you would have to pick them higher in snake drafts or buy them for more in auctions. The New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers have such high-octane offenses that both of these QBs will be throwing and scoring a lot. In 2010, these teams led the league in scoring. Excluding Brady’s 2008 lost season, he has been in the top eight of passing yards for the last 5 years. For the last 3 years, Rivers has led the NFL in yards per pass attempt.
Arguably, Peyton Manning’s neck is the major story entering the 2011 NFL season. The pain seems to be subsiding; therefore, this gives him a decent chance at leading a fantasy team. For the last 2 years, he has been in the top two in pass attempts. Moreover, in the last 12 of 13 years, he has been top ten. Those who are in 1-QB leagues who select Peyton should ensure they get his backup Kerry Collins and a second to third tier QB. 2-QB league managers obviously need to grab Collins in later rounds in addition to at least a second tier QB and a third tier QB.
My second tier ranges from Tony Romo to Eli Manning. Other than Romo, the best picks out of this group are Josh Freeman and Eli Manning. With the bulk of his main receivers returning, the young and upcoming Freeman looks to be progressing at an extremely fast rate heading into his third NFL season out of Kansas St. In 2010, he was top ten in QBs in combined pass and rush yards. His 364 rush yards ranked him second behind Vick. His 2010 TD total of 25 was tenth. The Tampa QB surprisingly has zero career rush TDs in 27 games started, but I could see his knack for getting out of the pocket resulting in more rushing TDs in the future. Of the 33 QBs last season with at least 200 pass attempts, Freeman tied for the third fewest interceptions (6). From one of the least turnover-prone QBs we go to the most, the other Manning brother. Eli takes his chances, and he has been bit by many defenses recently. He had a career-high 25 INTs in 2010 that led the NFL. However, I do not foresee him repeating that in his 2011 campaign; he had a combined 24 in 2009 and 2010. In fantasy leagues, he makes up for the turnovers by throwing for a lot of yards and TDs. Eli was top five in pass yards and TDs last year. Out of his 31 TDs caught by receivers in 2010, he only lost players who caught 9 of them. Hakeem Nicks (11) and Mario Manningham (9) combined for 20; as a result, Eli looks to be in good company for this upcoming season. He loses oft-injured Steve Smith, who recorded only 1 catch in his final 8 games in a Giants uniform. Eli’s season stats (250.1 yards and 1.938 TDs per game) were very similar to his 7 games without Smith getting a reception (248.6 yards and 1.857 TDs per game).
Ben Roethlisberger should be a safe pick for this tier too; he does get beaten up, but is durable. Big Ben has played at least 15 games in the last 4 of 5 seasons; all 4 of his missed games in 2010 were due to suspension, not injury. Additionally, he is the active leader in yards per pass attempt (8.0). Roethlisberger proves to be a secure fantasy QB each year, but Matt Schaub will not be scoring enough to guarantee a top ten spot. After leading the league in pass completions, attempts and yards and finishing fifth in pass TDs (29) in 2009, the Houston QB dropped in all those categories in 2010. The emergence of Texans running game and Arian Foster made Schaub’s pass TD numbers fall to twelfth (24). The fumbles could also be a problem for Schaub, who had 9 last year (fifth in the NFL). Onto another Matt, this one with the Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan looks to be emerging as one of the best NFL QBs, but seeing him in the playoffs throwing long balls to Roddy White does not necessarily mean he is going to lead your fantasy league to stardom. In 2008 and 2009, Ryan did not finish in the top ten in completions, attempts, yards or TDs. However, he stepped up to a new level in 2010 with career-highs in the four categories: finished fifth in completions, sixth in attempts, ninth in yards and sixth in TDs. After having one of the easiest strengths of schedule in 2010, Ryan has the seventh toughest one for a QB in 2011. I would much rather have Romo, Freeman, Eli Manning or Roethlisberger than Schaub or Ryan in this group.
The third tier contains Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel and Matthew Stafford. A pick that could win your league would be the injury-plagued Detroit QB, Stafford. He has played 13 games out of a possible 32 in his first 2 NFL seasons; in 2010, he provided the Lions with only 3 starts. He has the potential of a tier two or even tier one QB with his high volume of passes and strong receivers, including Calvin Johnson, one of the most dynamic WRs in the NFL. In 2009, Stafford led the NFL in pass attempts per game (37.7). With limited playing time in 2010, he scored 7 total TDs, so there is a chance he can bring you success by the end of your fantasy season. Just in case, do make sure you at least keep an eye on Shaun Hill. If you have room, I like keeping him on a deep bench. In 11 games with the Lions in 2010, Hill finished fourth in pass attempts per game (37.8), which is eerily similar to Matthew Stafford’s NFL-leading 37.7 in 2009. The Stafford/Hill combo puts your team in a good position.
Moving onto other third tier QBs, I am in favor of selecting Flacco or Bradford after Stafford. Last season, the Ravens QB had his career-high in total TDs (26) and pass yards per game (226.4) and career-low in INTs (10). Flacco has also yet to miss a game in his 3-year career. The addition of Lee Evans and subtraction of Derrick Mason will lead to more deep patterns in the Baltimore playbook. Therefore, we may see Flacco increase in both TDs and INTs, which benefits you in fantasy. Overall, he is reliable. Another dependable QB is Sam Bradford in St. Louis. Watch out though for him near the end of the season. In his first 11 games of 2010, Bradford scored at least 1 TD 10 times. In his final 5 games, he only found the endzone twice. Heading into 2011, the Rams added deep threat Mike Sims-Walker, who has reeled in 14 TDs in the last 2 seasons. With a year under his belt in the NFL, Bradford looks to be a great QB2 in a 2-QB league.
The final two players of this tier are hit or miss QBs: Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel. For each of these QBs, I project around 3000 yards and 25 TDs, but foresee the two of them finishing top five to ten in QB turnovers and sacks in the upcoming season. In the past 3 years, Cutler has finished with numerous INTs: eighth most in the NFL in 2010, first in 2009 and second in 2008. In 2010, Cutler also finished with the most times sacked (52) and third most QB fumbles (10). Along with Cutler, Cassel has his weaknesses that also can make him a risk. I fear that Cassel’s third season as an NFL starter (2010) could be his high point for a while. His 7 INTs seem to be an anomaly more than a trend. Cassel’s schedule is much tougher this season compared to 2010. Last season, Kansas City only faced 1 team that finished in the top ten in INTs in 2010 (Cleveland Browns: tenth). In 2011, Cassel and the Chiefs face off against 4 top ten INT teams from 2010 (New England Patriots: first; Green Bay Packers: second; Chicago Bears: fifth; Pittsburgh Steelers: sixth). With these disadvantages, Cutler and Cassel are gambles at QB.
The fourth and fifth tiers include the remaining 15 starting QBs heading into the 2011 NFL season. These tiers pertain to deep 2-QB leagues. In these types of leagues, owners are looking for pass attempts from their QBs and hope to find lightning in a bottle. Tier four is Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez, David Garrard, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Hasselbeck. Tier five includes Colt McCoy, Chad Henne, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Tavaris Jackson, John Beck and Andy Dalton. Most of these QBs are tough to read because they are rookies, newcomers or inconsistent players. While these starting QBs are not the cream of the crop, some have a chance to really make a fantasy impact.
Buffalo Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is the true home run pick of 2011. In only 13 games last year, he totaled 3000 passing yards and 6 multiple TD games. He looks far down the field and airs the ball out. His 15 INTs are a concern, but at this point in your draft that should not deter you from taking him. Besides Fitzpatrick, I also like Jason Campbell and Colt McCoy. It looks like Campbell will be relied upon as the Raiders starter all season after his strong performance over the last 5 games of 2010 (6 TDs, 2 INTs and 213.0 yards per game). A good finish in 2010 and a long leash for the Oakland QB makes him a good pick for you. As a late flier, McCoy in Cleveland has a chance to get good yardage (197.0 yards per game in 8 games in 2010) and some TDs (6), but a lot of INTs (10). Then again, in the 3 preseason games that he played in 2011, McCoy had a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio. This could be an indication that he has better control of his passes this year. So, give him a chance as one of your backups in a 2-QB league. Other picks in these final tiers that may work out for you are the following: new to Arizona, Kevin Kolb will use Larry Fitzgerald and some Todd Heap to show what he can do as a fulltime starter. In Denver, Kyle Orton has a big arm, but may throw less passes because of the John Fox run-heavy offense. Matt Hasselbeck is a new face in Tennessee and has surpassed 3000 yards 7 times in his 12-year career (including both 2009 and 2010).
These tiers are here to help you organize how you should go about picking your QBs. For instance, in a 2-QB league with 12-16 teams, you may want to get a QB in each of the five tiers if you have the bench space. In contrast, an owner in a 1-QB league with 12-16 teams would be more inclined to a tier one QB along with one in tier three or tier four. Nevertheless, there is one main rule that fantasy owners should live by with their precious QBs in 2011: take one of the Super Six and you will be rewarded.
Yahoo Contributor Network Link: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8366285/your_fantasy_football_qb_the_super.html?cat=14
(Sources: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/, http://espn.go.com/, http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats, http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm)
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