Denver Disqualification

We all know that the Celtics’ tremendous lack of rebounding has been among the worst of the last decade and has been dominating the headlines in Boston. The 19-rebound differential in Saturday night’s game in Denver was the Nuggets’ best of the season and it tied the Celtics’ second worst. However, most people are ignoring what Celtics captain Paul Pierce did on Saturday.

He fouled out – He fouled out with 3:51 left in the 4th Quarter. How often does that happen to “The Truth”? The last time Pierce fouled out that early in a regular season game was December 1, 2003 vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. This was with 3:58 left in the 4th Quarter that night at the FleetCenter. He was called for a reach in foul on Mike Miller, who had the ball at the three-point line. The Celtics went on to lose that game, 96-89.

In addition, Boston also lost the earliest time Pierce fouled out of a game, regular season or playoffs, in the last decade. It was a first round game of the 2008 Playoffs vs. the Atlanta Hawks. On May 2, 2008, in Game 6, Pierce committed his 6th foul with 4:43 left on an away-from-the-ball foul on Zaza Pachulia. That 103-100 Celtics loss at Philips Arena pushed the first New Big 3 Era season to the brink, but fortunately there was a happy ending.

Most importantly, Pierce has fouled out only 5 times in 426 (1.2%) combined regular season and playoff games played with Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett on the roster. Moreover, The Truth now has fouled out just twice in his 353 (0.6%) regular season games in the New Big 3 Era. Compare either of those statistics to his foul out rate before the New Big 3 Era and one sees a large difference.  Pierce fouled out 19 times in 652 (2.9%) regular season games from his rookie year, 1998-99, to 2006-07.

One more oddity of Pierce fouling out against the Nuggets was that it was not the first time that he had fouled out in Denver. Nor was it the second time. Not only was it the third time Pierce has fouled out against the Nuggets, but it was also the third time at the Pepsi Center. This represents the most times Pierce has fouled out against a specific team and the most times Pierce has fouled out at any one arena. It is beneficial for Pierce and the Celtics that they do not face the Nuggets again during the regular season, so there is one bright spot coming out of the Celtics’ second consecutive road loss in as many nights.

Crimson/Commodore Clash

While the Ivy League has always been known for its academic excellence, its teams have been making a splash in the NCAA Tournament lately. The 2012 edition of Tommy Amaker’s Harvard Crimson is hoping to continue the strong Ivy League showing in the upcoming tournament. After 11 consecutive first-round exits for Ivy League teams, 12-seed Cornell reached the Sweet Sixteen in 2010 and 13-seed Princeton went down to the wire in a first-round loss in 2011. Until Cornell’s recent run, Princeton’s 1998 team was the last Ivy League representative to win a tournament game. When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, the members of the perennial one-bid league have to somehow gain an advantage when they are the underdogs.

Two years ago, Cornell shocked 5-seed Temple and 4-seed Wisconsin by outrebounding (average of 6-rebound advantage) and outshooting opponents from three-point (average of 15.5% three-point percentage advantage). Cornell won those 2 games by an average of 15.5 points per game, but fell to a larger and more athletic 1-seed Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. The Big Red was better by 11.3% from three-point in that game, but the Wildcats grabbed 11 more rebounds and shot 13 more free throws. In addition, when 13-seed Princeton almost pulled off a large upset on 4-seed Kentucky in 2011, the Tigers’ shooting numbers were not good enough. Princeton was able to win the rebounding battle by 2, but was outshot by 24.1% from three-point. Most often, an Ivy League team has less overall talent than its tournament opponent, so in order to get the victory, it needs to win a few statistical categories while not being severely beat in any.

Harvard’s defense will be the main reason that the Crimson will stay in the game when the madness begins on Thursday, March 15. Moreover, Harvard’s offense helps the team on the defensive end of the court. Harvard is the 25th best free-throw shooting team in the country (75.0%) and one of the strongest rebounding teams, too. The team gives up the 2nd fewest rebounds per game (28.0) and commands the boards for the 25th best total rebounding rate (54.1%). Making free throws and rebounding the basketball allows Harvard’s scoring defense to be the 4th best in the nation (55.0 opponent points per game). It is also important that Harvard ranks among the best in many of the shooting defense statistics, including the 7th fewest opponent free throw attempts per game (14.7) and the 27th lowest opponent effective field goal percentage (44.9%). Harvard vaulted to the peak of the Ivy League because of their defense.

Furthermore, the Crimson grabbed headlines this season when entering the polls as early as the fifth week. They remained in the Top 25 for most of the rest of the season until suffering a few conference losses in the final month. However, Harvard rebounded with 2 close wins on consecutive days to make it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1946. The Crimson has an 11-day resting period until their clash with the 5-seed Vanderbilt Commodores, a team that has only 3 days off coming into Thursday.

Vanderbilt becomes yet another Southeastern Conference team that will face off against an Ivy League foe. Kentucky finished off the last 2 Ivy League representatives in the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, Vanderbilt beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament Championship on Sunday, March 11. So, can the Commodores take the reins from the Wildcats and defeat the Crimson of the Ivy League on Thursday? It may not be as easy as you think.