Friday, November 25, 2011

Stay away from Browns RBs in Week 12

With Montario Hardesty (calf) participating in practice on Friday, Cleveland Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmur said that no Browns RB is going to receive a full workload in Week 12 vs. Cincinnati. Although Chris Ogbonnaya seems to have come into his own over the last 2 weeks (5.1 yards per rush on 40 carries), he cannot be relied upon even as a RB2 this week. In addition, with it being Hardesty’s first game since late October, he is barely a flex option. And Peyton Hillis (hamstring) is even a game-time decision. While I don’t expect Hillis to play, this still adds more evidence that neither Ogbonnaya nor Hardesty are good fantasy options this week against a Bengals defense that gives up an NFL-least 3.4 yards per rush.

Friday, November 18, 2011

QB Controversy for Your Fantasy Team in Week 11


There have already been 8 permanent changes at QB in the NFL this season. That marks one-fourth of the NFL. All of the following Week 1 starting QBs have lost their starting position one way or another coming into Week 11: Chad Henne, Matt Schaub, Kerry Collins, Luke McCown, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb. In addition, there are special circumstances with Michael Vick, Kevin Kolb and Rex Grossman.

In most Fantasy Football leagues, owners can only start 1 QB. Most likely, Matt Schaub (foot) and Michael Vick (ribs) are hurting owners in almost every league. With the Lisfranc sprain to Schaub’s right foot, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Monday that Schaub would be done for the season. Not so fast. Texans Head Coach Gary Kubiak says that nothing is for sure yet. I think you have to hold onto Schaub until it is confirmed that he is done for the season. If Schaub returns with a few weeks left in the season, you do not want to be sorry you dropped a top 10 QB. Schaub owners should make space on their bench for both Matt Leinart and Schaub. After the Texans have their bye in Week 11, Houston faces the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In Week 8 vs. Jacksonville, Schaub was the 6th best fantasy QB in ESPN standard leagues. If you have limited options, it is possible Matt Leinart could be a sneaky start. There’s a chance he could make it into the top 10 of QBs in Week 12. He has a lot of talented players around him, including two of the best twenty RBs in the league in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Leinart could find himself with 100+ yards and a TD on dump off passes alone. Not only can he throw short, but he can also go long with Andre Johnson, who looks to be back after the bye. Give the high-risk, high-reward Heisman winner a shot in Week 12.


We’re still in Week 11 and some owners are struggling at their QB position with Vick possibly out Sunday. Several sources are reporting that he can barely walk. Expect Vince Young to get the nod at the Giants. Surprisingly, Young is 2-0 in his career vs. the Giants with the following stats: 66.7% completion percentage, 367 pass yards, 3 pass TD, 107.2 QB rating, 13 rushes, 75 rush yards, 1 rush TD. Last year in New York, he played well, but had only 16 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts compared to 32 carries for Chris Johnson. I don’t see Young as a detriment to the Philly offense, but look for LeSean McCoy to be the main guy. As far as starting him for your team, Young is a solid choice. He won’t win your week for you, but he won’t lose your week. I think 12-20 for 200 yards and a TD sounds good to me. With Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger on bye, you don’t have too many great replacements out there. I’m liking Young (owned in 2.1% of ESPN Fantasy Football leagues), but here are a few other QBs you may want to consider for your Week 11 matchup: Carson Palmer (53.0%) and Alex Smith (29.5%). As long as you are not penalized too much for turnovers, Palmer is a very good option against a Vikings defense that gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Alex Smith and the 49ers look to carve up the Cardinals and he should be a key part of that blowout.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Beanie Wells and Saints RBs in Week 10


Arizona Cardinals starting RB Beanie Wells continues to be hampered by a knee injury, but is still the 15th most started back in Week 10. He is part of a group of RBs that are started in more leagues than they should be. Beanie is much too overrated to be started in almost 72% of leagues. While he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in his first 3 games of the season, he has not been the same since. He has only topped 100 total yards twice this season, the last being in Week 4. In addition, Beanie has only scored once since Week 5. Facing the Eagles this week, the Cardinals should be down most of the game and there won’t be too many carries to be had. Without any bye weeks in Week 10 as well as John Skelton starting again at QB, I can’t see Beanie finishing in the top 25 of RBs this week.


While Beanie Wells is the primary back in Arizona, there are many teams using RB committees. The New Orleans Saints is one of those teams, and they utilize it successfully with Darren Sproles (14th most started: 74.0% started), Pierre Thomas (29th: 38.4%), Mark Ingram (40th: 19.5%) and Chris Ivory (75th: 0.4%). Having four competent backs works well in the NFL, but not in Fantasy Football. For deep league owners struggling at RB, Ivory is a nice sleeper because of the confidence the Saints coaching staff has in him. In only his 2nd game this season (last week vs. Tampa), he led all Saints RBs in touches (15). Unfortunately, Mark Ingram (heel) could be active this week for the first time since Week 7. That would bump Ivory, who is battling his own hamstring troubles, back down to the 4th RB on the roster. If so, I would avoid most of the Saints RB situation. With Sproles’ great presence in the passing game each week (at least 5 receptions in each game in 2011), he’s always a good start. However, I’m not confident starting Thomas, Ingram or Ivory. I would avoid these guys because they all take touches away from each other.



(All starting percentages based on ESPN Fantasy Football Leagues. Also, all fantasy points based on ESPN standard scoring.)

Friday, November 4, 2011

Chargers RB Situation for Week 9

San Diego Chargers starting RB Ryan Mathews (groin) has missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Third-string RB Curtis Brinkley (concussion) has done the same. Meanwhile, Mike Tolbert (hamstring) has practiced both Wednesday and Thursday after being inactive this past Monday night. With FB Jacob Hester as the only other remaining healthy back in San Diego, look for Tolbert to get 25-30 touches vs. the Green Bay Packers defense that gives up the 5th most yards/game and 2nd most pass yards/game in the NFL. The Packers could get up early and force the Chargers to pass more, but that won’t be a problem for Tolbert. As long as Mathews and Brinkley are inactive this Sunday, I think Tolbert is a must-start because he should get you 150 yards from scrimmage and at least a TD.